20150807 - Travis Walton, Abductee - Live Chat Thread

[Jackstar]

jackball

I didn't start this way.

[UnscreenedCaller]

When someone starts a sentence with "I seen", chances are it won't be followed by "the inside of a book"

[SciFiAuthor]

The Fermi Paradox is extremely relevant in 2015.  Not sure what you're talking about.  In fact, it's becoming more and more relevant as time goes on.

The Fermi Paradox rests on the basic assumption that advanced alien civilizations are detectable. If we are any clue, civilizations become less detectable the more technologically advanced they get, especially in radio. Fermi and Hart didn't realize this. When a civilization reaches nanotechnology then they become extremely difficult to detect even if you're right on top of them. We're less than 100 years from our own nanotechnological revolution. The only ones easily detectable will be those that wish to be detected, which are going to be quite scarce I would speculate. 

Everything on this subject is speculative and subjective.  That's the first thing you need to wrap your head around.

Sure, it's very speculative, and so is the Fermi Paradox. They had no feel for the distribution of exoplanets in the galaxy. We do now. That's a  plug in to the Drake Equation that Fermi and Hart didn't have. We also can study our own behavior which is often at odds with how everyone thinks aliens might act. SETI, for example, depends on a very powerful repeating signal for proof. In other words a signal that keeps repeating. Our own attempt at that was never repeated. We sent one message. Our own contact message would fail an alien SETI's criteria for a signal.

Also, you need to get past this silly notion that something that was brought up 3 years ago can no longer be relevant today.  That's preposterous, brother.  Some of the very same lofty things that we are talking about in 2015 were being discussed thousands of years ago.  History repeats.

The Fermi Paradox dies the moment an alien civilization is detected. It'll never make a comeback from that.

[Jackstar]

The Fermi Paradox dies the moment an alien civilization is detected. It'll never make a comeback from that.

Detected... by whom?

[JamesMcDonald]

The Fermi Paradox dies the moment an alien civilization is detected. It'll never make a comeback from that.

With all due respect, I don't think you fully understand the Fermi Paradox, or more specifically how the term "paradox" is applied in this context.  There is much more to the theory than just the potential discovery by humans of another civilization in space.  The reason it's called a "paradox" is because -- to this date -- we have not yet discovered an alien civilization.

In other words, the Fermi Paradox exists and it will never cease to exist.  A good analogy is, you wake up tomorrow morning and the sun is not in the sky.  It is daytime, yet...  no sun.  It's a paradox.  Whatever occurs after that incredibly bizarre event is irrelevant because the sun didn't come up on that one day.  The paradox does not "cease to exist" simply because the sun comes up normally the day after.  The concept of the "no sun" paradox making a "comeback" would be moot and a non sequitur.

Having said that, there is still the notion of the Great Filter to contend with.  No one can say for sure if we are still moving towards the filter or if we have made it past.  Our civilization could be a lost cause in a matter of months, or we could be in territory never seen before in the history of the universe.  Once again, we can only speculate.

I think we agree on more than we disagree, but the most significant point I'm making is that humans have had very powerful and intricate existential philosophies about how we relate to other beings since the very beginning of our existence.  Not that I'm a huge proponent of the ancient aliens theory, but it does have some strong merit and it's quite possible that aliens have been here for thousands of years.  As you stated in a previous post, we just can't detect their presence.  Once again, we can only speculate.

The other important concept is the "D" word, Disclosure.  There could be a group of humans who are fully aware of the regular visitation of aliens to Earth.  A breakaway civilization...  We just don't know.

Here is a video of Nick Bostrom discussing the Fermi Paradox.  He's definitely a very smart man, but I'm not blown away by his ideas.  I tend to agree (for the most part) with this YouTuber's comment.  If anything, Bostrom is quite mainstream in his thinking.

"Bostom's opinion is a well educated and certainly as plausible as the next, but it's still an opinion and 1 possibility. It's a possibility that just so happens to be one that is routinely encouraged by main-stream academia.

Another is ETs purposely hide their presence, yet are ubiquitously active on and around Earth and the Sol system. Possibly since Earth was formed til present in waves of completely different ETs. This possibility is as valid as Bostrom's. But it goes a little further by making a prediction. If Earth is indeed a commonly known planet then there should exist a probability that these ET may be occasionally and randomly observed historically and presently.

Observation > Theory"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GnkAcdRgcI

[Jackstar]

Those are indeed very good points, but I don't know who you are referring to in your use of the word "we." If you could perhaps define your terms, I think you're on to a crucial point here.

[b_dubb]

There are a lot of assumptions made by that theory. In my opinion the Fermi Paradox is pretty brittle. Why constrain an alien race with our primitive understanding of the Universe? And why would we assume they would want us to be aware of them?

If an ET civ made itself known there's a chance it would set off a war on Earth. Maybe they want to avoid that?

[Jackstar]

In my opinion the Fermi Paradox is pretty brittle.

I don't think you understand the paradox.

[SciFiAuthor]

With all due respect, I don't think you fully understand the Fermi Paradox, or more specifically how the term "paradox" is applied in this context.  There is much more to the theory than just the potential discovery by humans of another civilization in space.  The reason it's called a "paradox" is because -- to this date -- we have not yet discovered an alien civilization.

I understand it fully, you're just lagging in your monitoring of human technology and futurism. We are a strong indicator that the paradox may never have existed. We currently show every indicator that we are becoming less detectable the more advanced we become. If it's extremely difficult to detect an alien civilization, then the paradox is resolved.

Regarding disclosure and aliens. There is no reason for aliens to be physically present in the solar system. Why travel all that distance to do what a robot can do better? If they are here, they are here in the form of a von Neumann probe and we'll never know about it unless we accidently crash into it or it announces its presence.

Bostrum's a professor at Oxford, so yeah his thinking is academically mainstream. So was Enrico Fermi's.

[jerry]

There are a lot of assumptions made by that theory. In my opinion the Fermi Paradox is pretty brittle. Why constrain an alien race with our primitive understanding of the Universe? And why would we assume they would want us to be aware of them?

If an ET civ made itself known there's a chance it would set off a war on Earth. Maybe they want to avoid that?

I have to wonder if we humans aren't also wrong in assuming that since we evolved/developed certain technologies in a certain general order, that other life forms would too.  Perhaps it is more random and perhaps not similar at all even if the planets are.  For example assuming a civilization would develop radio tech or nano tech may be a false assumption.  They could have figured things out and used technologies we do not have the slightest clue about.

Admittedly IF this is so, they may be even less detectable by us, or us to them, than has already been stated.  We may simply not be able to see what is right in front of us... or it may not be in front of us to miss, etc.

[Jackstar]

We are a strong indicator that the paradox may never have existed. We currently show every indicator that we are becoming less detectable the more advanced we become. If it's extremely difficult to detect an alien civilization, then the paradox is resolved.

I don't believe that this is the paradox and I think that you are 100% correct in your reasoning. Now I ask you--is that a paradox?

If they are here, they are here in the form of a von Neumann probe and we'll never know about it unless we accidently crash into it or it announces its presence.

I don't believe that this statement is sound.

Bostrum's a professor at Oxford, so yeah his thinking is academically mainstream. So was Enrico Fermi's.

William Jefferson Clinton was a Rhodes scholar. I don't think much of your reasoning here at all.

[SciFiAuthor]

Now I ask you--is that a paradox?

A convergence.

I don't believe that this statement is sound.

It would be the most efficient method of exploring the galaxy.

William Jefferson Clinton was a Rhodes scholar. I don't think much of your reasoning here at all.

Bet Clinton got laid a lot at Oxford.

[JamesMcDonald]

I understand it fully, you're just lagging in your monitoring of human technology and futurism. We are a strong indicator that the paradox may never have existed. We currently show every indicator that we are becoming less detectable the more advanced we become. If it's extremely difficult to detect an alien civilization, then the paradox is resolved.

Regarding disclosure and aliens. There is no reason for aliens to be physically present in the solar system. Why travel all that distance to do what a robot can do better? If they are here, they are here in the form of a von Neumann probe and we'll never know about it unless we accidently crash into it or it announces its presence.

Bostrum's a professor at Oxford, so yeah his thinking is academically mainstream. So was Enrico Fermi's.

Uh, no.  I'm not lagging at all.  If anything, I'm way ahead of the pack in this regard.     I'm 50 years old now and I've been a futurist essentially since I was a teenager.

I'm just not getting my argument through to you as clearly as I should, and for that I apologize.  You seem like a very bright guy.  If I take your nickname literally, you write science fiction.  That's a cool skill.

"We currently show every indicator that we are becoming less detectable the more advanced we become."

Not true at all.  This statement makes no sense whatsoever.  There is absolutely no evidence that our civilization has become more or less "detectable" over the years.  Why not?  Because we don't know how they would detect us.

In re to SETI?  It's a joke.  I'll leave it at that.

As far as aliens traveling here as opposed to sending some form of probe/robot, again, the jury is still out on that.  At this stage of the game we have no way of truly knowing how aliens travel from galaxy to galaxy.  They may be able to traverse trillions of light years in minutes.  We don't know.  Furthermore, just because humans send probes into space doesn't mean every alien civilization does.

Ergo, it is impossible to say if aliens are present in our star system or not.  How would humans know what aliens think in regard to their motivation to visit or not!?  We have no idea what their logic and justification would be in deciding to travel to our solar system.  There may be hidden reasons that motivate them to personally visit as opposed to sending probes.  As I stated above, it may be extremely quick and easy for them to traverse vast expanses of space with mind-boggling ease.  Why send a probe when they can get here in hours?

We probably got too hung up on the Fermi paradox.  It's only one of countless theories out there.  I just posted it here in the forum in case some people hadn't heard about it and they wanted to learn more.

I'll leave you with a quote from William Blake.  Maybe this will help convey my thoughts on this.

"The imagination is not a state: it is the human existence itself."

― William Blake

[Jackstar]

It would be the most efficient method of exploring the galaxy.

There's no particular reason to presuppose that our particular galaxy has not already been explored. At some level of sentience, exploration becomes maintenance.

[Lord Grantham]

Here's the FBI file: http://www.cufon.org/cufon/Klass_FBI.pdf on Philip Klass. Gets good around page 17. Page 27 actually says "writer is not in full possession of his faculties."

You might want to read further past page 27. The "writer is not in full possession of his faculties" is related to hoaxed test flight data for a non-existent aircraft that some loony mailed to multiple companies and stuck Klass' name on.

[SciFiAuthor]

Not true at all.  This statement makes no sense whatsoever.  There is absolutely no evidence that our civilization has become more or less "detectable" over the years.  Why not?  Because we don't know how they would detect us.

Look at broadcast AM radio. In the 1930's we had WLW broadcasting at 500 KW in the US. Now the most you'll find is 50kw. Other telecommunications grow either cable-based, or very directional microwave or laser communications. The death of AM can be foreseen already, so as a civilization we are going radio silent as far as space goes. Sure we use RF all the time for phones and routers and whatnot, but those are very weak signals that you're not going to see halfway across the Milky Way or even at Alpha Centauri.

The only other ways E.T. will detect us is through our heat signatures, but that too eventually drops as nanotech takes over. Then finally the dead ringer chemicals in the Earth's atmosphere that show up in a spectrum. Again, this is something that we are actively trying to eliminate and not add to, it's called pollution. What's left? Not much.

In re to SETI?  It's a joke.  I'll leave it at that.

Sad thing is, if you put SETI on Alpha Centauri and had them look at our Solar System, they would not detect Earth except in two very specific circumstances: high powered radar and the 1974 Arecibo broadcast, neither of which would satisfy SETI's criteria for a hit.

As far as aliens traveling here as opposed to sending some form of probe/robot, again, the jury is still out on that.  At this stage of the game we have no way of truly knowing how aliens travel from galaxy to galaxy.  They may be able to traverse trillions of light years in minutes.  We don't know.  Furthermore, just because humans send probes into space doesn't mean every alien civilization does.

I'm a contrarian to most on this point, and yes, yes, this is all speculative. I suspect that advanced alien civilizations simply don't travel, at least in person. Once you get a theory of everything, possibly string theory, and understand the fundamental basic nature of the universe then what's the point of looking at red giant after red giant? You know how they work, why visit? You might find a universe teeming with various forms of life, but once you know that at least one other civilization exists out there, then the big question is answered. You are not alone. After that, there's just not much reason to go traveling around, at least in person.

Ergo, it is impossible to say if aliens are present in our star system or not.  How would humans know what aliens think in regard to their motivation to visit or not!?  We have no idea what their logic and justification would be in deciding to travel to our solar system.  There may be hidden reasons that motivate them to personally visit as opposed to sending probes.  As I stated above, it may be extremely quick and easy for them to traverse vast expanses of space with mind-boggling ease.  Why send a probe when they can get here in hours?

I suspect that advanced civilizations merge with their technology at some point and begin thinking like computers. If that's the case, then once you check off alien life on the bucket list and know it exists, then there's not much reason to expend the resources on finding other biological life. You're post-biological at that stage and it becomes like a human talking to a goat: sort of fruitless. If Ray Kurzweil and Michio Kaku are right in their futurism, we're decades, not centuries away from merging with technology ourselves. We are about to go post-human.

[SciFiAuthor]

There's no particular reason to presuppose that our particular galaxy has not already been explored. At some level of sentience, exploration becomes maintenance.

It probably has at some stage. Maybe multiple times.

[onan]

Once you get a theory of everything, possibly string theory, and understand the fundamental basic nature of the universe then what's the point of looking at red giant after red giant? You know how they work, why visit? You might find a universe teeming with various forms of life, but once you know that at least one other civilization exists out there, then the big question is answered. You are not alone. After that, there's just not much reason to go traveling around, at least in person.

This is why I like reading your posts, SciFi.

To think at some point "We know it all, best to just rest on the porch." might be proof of a damned funny creator.

[aldousburbank]

To think at some point "We know it all, best to just rest on the porch." might be proof of a damned funny creator.

Meta Homuncular dude!

[SciFiAuthor]

This is why I like reading your posts, SciFi.

To think at some point "We know it all, best to just rest on the porch." might be proof of a damned funny creator.

Heh, thanks. I agree. I'm actually looking forward to resting on the porch. That's my kind of future. Sitting there, Martini and dubious in hand, looking up at the universe dismissively and saying "fuck it."

[Jackstar]

The only other ways E.T. will detect us is

OH! I get it now. Your name is actually short for SciFiAuthority.

Please, by all means, continue with the reading of the proclamations.

[SciFiAuthor]

Authority.

In this instance, something along those lines, yes.

[Jackstar]

In this instance, something along those lines, yes.

Are you implying that on a sufficiently cosmic perspective on our reality, the other stars don't just ask Sol, "hey, you got any sentient life over there yet?"

[wr250]

In this instance, something along those lines, yes.

authoritah ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gx4jn77VKlQ

[SciFiAuthor]

Are you implying that on a sufficiently cosmic perspective on our reality, the other stars don't just ask Sol, "hey, you got any sentient life over there yet?"

Sol is coldly indifferent to us, quietly awaiting its chance to swell into a red giant and incinerate our world. When you look towards the sunset and admire it, know you are looking at a future murderer.

[Jackstar]

know you are looking at a future murderer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnNrSD0OiUU

[GeorgieForPresident2216]

Sol is coldly indifferent to us, quietly awaiting its chance to swell into a red giant and incinerate our world. When you look towards the sunset and admire it, know you are looking at a future murderer.

That's alright.  The seas will have been boiled away long before then.

[SciFiAuthor]

That's alright.  The seas will have been boiled away long before then.

Yeah, damned sun. Someone should do something about that thing.

[Jackstar]

Yeah, damned sun. Someone should do something about that thing.

[Herbn-Legend]

Daom some of thez responsez r novelz😒 wel i realy hope alienz dont bother us, we need to save the planet ourselvez. If alienz do arrive B REDEYE 4A BUTTPROBE😱😒😱 me i gota fully auto shotgun 4da buttproberz.🙌🙌 seriously tho the universe iz a positive negetative flow. Earth or u flateartherz IHOP,  haz to b considered a NEGATIVE IN THE UNIVERSE. All the hate war an detruction woud defenitly keep me FRM A EARTH VACATION. But mayb thatz just me