Oso mudslide

[yumyumtree]

We are reeling from the mudslide in Snohomish Co. near Arlington. The last figure I heard is 24 dead, over 100 missing. I suspect that a lot of the missing have been reported missing more than once, so there are aren't really that many missing. I hope that's the case anyway. Searching for bodies is hellish. It rained today and the wind is blowing really hard in Everett. I don't know if it is up there, but it can't be very nice work conditions.
I guess that the area had really become sort of a bedroom community and a lot of residents didnt know each other that well so that made it harder to report people missing.

At the risk of sounding like blaming the victims, there is some question about the wisdom of building in that spot too, I guess. I don't know if Ive been to Oso, Ive probably been by it or through it on my way to someplace else. But a guy was on John Carlson yesterday saying that experts knew this would happen.

[area51drone]

I agree with you, and I question why people are allowed to build and rebuild within 100 year river floodplains.    Time and time again in Washington at least, we've witnessed homes being destroyed along river banks, only to see a new one pop up - usually in the same spot - within months after the floods have gone.    I understand the appeal to living by the river, but when will they learn?     It *was* pouring today, and with all the rain we've had this month - record breaking rains, you sure hope there isn't another disaster lurking against the responders.

On a side note, what station is John Carlson on now?   I used to love listening to him in the 90's.  He was best with Ken Schramm on the Commentators.

[FightTheFuture]

It's an unimaginably horrible tragedy. I fear the death toll is going to rise precipitously. Those poor people. 

On another note, I think you are exactly right, yumyumtree, about people ignoring the risk of living in areas that are prone to natural disasters.  I  wish folks would be a bit more cognizant of their  environment and all the risks that come along with it.

[onan]

People like to live near water. It is a tragedy. People die all the time. Dying in a terrifying way, some over several hours... in a flood plain or not... sucks.

[area51drone]

Yeah but at least if you live near the ocean, there is a warning if a storm or even a tsunami is headed your way, so there is time to GTFO.   River dwellers tend to have the least amount of warning, and although they are notified on the news about flood danger, they seem to be the people who ignore warnings the most.   Maybe it's because there isn't a siren blasting throughout town.  Or maybe they're just stubborn like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Randall_Truman

[yumyumtree]

Carlson is on KVI 570 AM 6-9 (or maybe 5-9, I seldom get up that early.) morning drive.

This is the station Coast to Coast used to be on.

[area51drone]

Carlson is on KVI 570 AM 6-9 (or maybe 5-9, I seldom get up that early.) morning drive.

This is the station Coast to Coast used to be on.

Ahh, that's why.  I never listen that early, and rarely to AM anymore.  I can't remember the last time I listened to KVI, but I probably would if he was on in the afternoons.  Thanks...

[area51drone]

I saw on the early morning national news they were reporting 24 dead.   It wouldn't surprise me, but I thought the count had been 14 found.   I bet there so many bodies they will never find, unfortunately.

[VtaGeezer]

Its outrageous that CNN continued virtually full time about the Malaysian airliner while barely mentioning this huge ongoing domestic tragedy for days. No teams "experts", no graphics, not even decent fucking images showing the horrendous scale of the slide. 

As for the location being dangerous, if it's like many communities in that area most of the home were probably built before there was any zoning or code.  I  lived in W WA years ago and we used to camp up near Arlington.  Apparently the same slope had a serious slides regularly, the last in 2006. A state study said Oso was in danger of a catastrophic slide. I wonder what the residents would have said a week ago if asked if they were concerned about a dangerous mudslide.  Yet the people being interviewed say there was "no warning"...helllooo...the big slide seven years ago was the warning.  I lived close to a slide that killed ten people in CA a few years ago.  Those people too been warned for years but paid no heed because it was a "great place to live". 

[HorrorRetro]

It's terrible. I, too, have been disturbed by the lack of national news coverage on this story. The plane story has been running 24/7 with no new information, and here we have an ongoing emergency situation right here in the USA that gets little coverage.

I listened to the scanner on the night it happened. It's pretty horrific. As of last night, there were 16 bodies removed with 8 more that had been found but not yet removed, with still well over 100 missing. 

Some Oso photos for those who have not seen the landslide.





https://www.google.com/search?q=Oso+landslide+photos&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MAQzU7-oMsOhogTilYG4Ag&ved=0CDMQsAQ&biw=1920&bih=877

[FightTheFuture]

It's terrible. I, too, have been disturbed by the lack of national news coverage on this story. The plane story has been running 24/7 with no new information, and here we have an ongoing emergency situation right here in the USA that gets little coverage.

I listened to the scanner on the night it happened. It's pretty horrific. As of last night, there were 16 bodies removed with 8 more that had been found but not yet removed, with still well over 100 missing. 

Some Oso photos for those who have not seen the landslide.





https://www.google.com/search?q=Oso+landslide+photos&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MAQzU7-oMsOhogTilYG4Ag&ved=0CDMQsAQ&biw=1920&bih=877

My God! Look at those photos! It just breaks my heart. I can't even think about it. Damn.

[area51drone]

It's hard to believe that what, 20-30% of that hill fell away?  That's pretty unstable for such a small hill.

[HorrorRetro]

It reminds me of an F-5 tornado going through, just add tons of mud and water. 

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Grim-reality-Some-slide-victims-may-not-be-found-252505831.html

[HorrorRetro]

The story just keeps getting worse. They found the body of the missing 4-month old baby today.  Olivia is now 4 months old, so I can only imagine how the surviving family members feel.  They say the amount of mud that came down was 3 times the amount it took to built the Hoover Dam.

As of now, the confirmed death count is 25 with 90 still missing. For the first time, they are saying the missing 90 are most likely dead, and not just miscounts of missing people.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/28/us/loggers-join-in-search-for-washington-landslide-victims.html?hp&_r=0

[George Drooly]

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/03/27/is-there-a-connection-between-the-mudslide-and-our-states-historical-mishmash-of-logging-regulations

Pretty good article.

Sympathies for those affected, of course, but I'm always amazed at human hubris: "Oh, let's build a community on a cliff/river delta/volcano and then act perplexed when everything falls apart! Hey, let's rebuild in the same place!"

[albrecht]

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/03/27/is-there-a-connection-between-the-mudslide-and-our-states-historical-mishmash-of-logging-regulations

Pretty good article.

Sympathies for those affected, of course, but I'm always amazed at human hubris: "Oh, let's build a community on a cliff/river delta/volcano and then act perplexed when everything falls apart! Hey, let's rebuild in the same place!"

Interesting article. A lot of the land in the state is also Forest Service, tribal, and other lands that I guess would be over-seen by even other bodies and commissions to add to the mix. But before we "blame the victim" keep in mind we keep building major cities on known, major fault lines with a long geologic history of quakes, rebuild cities much of which are below sea-level on soft ground, and next to our largest river and a huge body of water, and other such stuff. Crazy, really. But it can't happen to me.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

... before we "blame the victim" keep in mind we keep building major cities on known, major fault lines with a long geologic history of quakes, rebuild cities much of which are below sea-level on soft ground, and next to our largest river and a huge body of water, and other such stuff. Crazy, really. But it can't happen to me.

Also we build in areas that are fire risks. In California, there are major fires every few years that do millions of dollars in property damage.

[albrecht]

Also we build in areas that are fire risks. In California, there are major fires every few years that do millions of dollars in property damage.

All over the western states especially in this drought there are lots of fire risks. And in some areas we've been told, in the past, that you can't cut down some trees, clear brush, etc due to environmental concerns or the rare bird that might live there. But also building houses in the middle of the woods without thinking of the risk. Now, luckily, smarter heads prevail but we still have so much fuel out there that it is a huge problem especially with the drought. And fire, like flood waters, move much faster than people think. You cant out run it once it gets going.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

...that you can't cut down some trees, clear brush, etc due to environmental concerns or the rare bird that might live there. But also building houses in the middle of the woods without thinking of the risk.

Many of those environmental groups are part of a real estate firm. You build on an area and then sue to keep competitors building near you. Privacy has value. Most of these environmental groups pop up for one year, make a lawsuit, and then mysteriously disappear.

[HorrorRetro]

We had a lot more rain than usual over the past month. I believe they said that they'd gotten about 15 inches in the area of the slide, and normal is about 7 inches. I'm sure that played a big part of it.

Another article I read today stated that quite a few houses in that area were previously foreclosed upon. The people that bought them were not notified of possible risks. When you buy foreclosed homes, neither the bank nor the realtor is required to give you the normal risk assessments. One woman had just bought her home two weeks ago and had several contractors up to work on it when this happened. The contractors were killed in the slide. The woman said she was never notified of previous slide activity.

Plenty of blame to go around, that's for sure, but right now I'm just thinking about the families.

[albrecht]

Many of those environmental groups are part of a real estate firm. You build on an area and then sue to keep competitors building near you. Privacy has value. Most of these environmental groups pop up for one year, make a lawsuit, and then mysteriously disappear.

I've also noticed cities involved in what I think are scams. Properties are declared "environmentally" important and so development can't happen. Then they are sold to the city or to an environmental trust group. Then, oddly, a decade or so later, a new "deal" is done where as a developer offers a new "environmental" protected zone further out but in exchange the city/trust let's them buy and develop the previous protected zone. (Because look "we are getting more acres for environmental protection"). Meanwhile the old rancher or farmer is long gone with that initial sale price (which was less than market price because land cannot be developed) and the city/developers made many millions.

[albrecht]

Plenty of blame to go around, that's for sure, but right now I'm just thinking about the families.

Agree with you there. Horrible situation.

[HorrorRetro]

More information on just how incredible the scale of this slide is.

http://www.king5.com/news/oso-landslide/Oso-landslide-the-equivalent-of-547-football-fields-six-feet-deep-252841271.html

[albrecht]

More information on just how incredible the scale of this slide is.

http://www.king5.com/news/oso-landslide/Oso-landslide-the-equivalent-of-547-football-fields-six-feet-deep-252841271.html

Jeez, as George would say (oddly and perversely gleefull at the thought of the tragic loss of life.) All the photos on the news I've seen don't show the scale. It was sort of frustrating because it was all the same old geostat photo before/after but hard to tell the scale. Horrible, just horrible.

[George Drooly]

Maybe they'll find Flight 370 under the mud

[wr250]

I've also noticed cities involved in what I think are scams. Properties are declared "environmentally" important and so development can't happen. Then they are sold to the city or to an environmental trust group. Then, oddly, a decade or so later, a new "deal" is done where as a developer offers a new "environmental" protected zone further out but in exchange the city/trust let's them buy and develop the previous protected zone. (Because look "we are getting more acres for environmental protection"). Meanwhile the old rancher or farmer is long gone with that initial sale price (which was less than market price because land cannot be developed) and the city/developers made many millions.

its not just cities, the BLM does it to. they did it here. we got told we could not ride atv's in a certain area due to an endangered species. so we stop. a few years later, guess what? the endangered plant was plowed under by d12 cats and earthmovers.
i asked a BLM ranger about it, he had no answer, but i told him "someone greased someone elses palm with enough cash to buy the land" and walked away.
btw , this particular plant does produce opium. not as much as the opium poppy, but still a substantial amount. it grows very slowly and is small ,and therefore not commercially viable in the opium market. its nickname here is "the heroin plant" .

[HorrorRetro]

Maybe they'll find Flight 370 under the mud

There's enough mud to hide several of them down there.

[VtaGeezer]

The Feds and the State both produced studies predicting this. But all one had to do was look up the hill and and see the old slides to see the danger. The county hacks buried the studies and let the site be developed. There should be criminal indictments, but I know that won't happen.  OTOH, when I lived in WA (near Tacoma), any govt official  telling people up there around Arlington that they couldn't build on their land would have met with a shotgun anyway.

[West of the Rockies]

And so it goes, VTAGeezer... yes, the local government undoubtedly botched things by allowing so much building on such a site; and yet due to the very libertarian leanings of the local populace, some people may well have just done what they wanted to do anyway.  I am conflicted on this story--I am genuinely sorry for the dreadful loss of life... and yet, it strikes me as akin to those knuckleheads who insist on putting up their stupid mansions in Malibu where they know things are incredibly dicey.  Stupidity piled upon stupidity....

[VtaGeezer]

And so it goes, VTAGeezer... yes, the local government undoubtedly botched things by allowing so much building on such a site; and yet due to the very libertarian leanings of the local populace, some people may well have just done what they wanted to do anyway.  I am conflicted on this story--I am genuinely sorry for the dreadful loss of life... and yet, it strikes me as akin to those knuckleheads who insist on putting up their stupid mansions in Malibu where they know things are incredibly dicey.  Stupidity piled upon stupidity....

The difference between California fires or mudslides and Oso is that they only rarely involve loss of life, and the counties in SoCA are generally proactive with regs to reduce fire, quake and slide hazards.  I lived there for 25 years. The local officials chose to ignore a clear and present danger at Oso WA.  I heard a geologist who wrote a study for the county after the '06 Oso slide say in a TV interview that he was shocked to see new homes going up there years after his report.