Oso mudslide

[West of the Rockies]

So who gets the finger of blame?  Would it be the developers?  (I am by instinct not overly fond of developers... I am sure there are very good developers, but it strikes me that many just want to buy a tract of land and turn it into a patchwork quilt of quick-dollar structures.)  Would it be developers in cahoots with the local zoning officials?  How do such decisions get made that lead to this sort of devastation?  I genuinely have no answers....

[VtaGeezer]

So who gets the finger of blame?  Would it be the developers?  (I am by instinct not overly fond of developers... I am sure there are very good developers, but it strikes me that many just want to buy a tract of land and turn it into a patchwork quilt of quick-dollar structures.)  Would it be developers in cahoots with the local zoning officials?  How do such decisions get made that lead to this sort of devastation?  I genuinely have no answers....

I don't have answers; just suspicions.  I used to fish and camp up there; it's good ol' boy country; logs, lumber, and land (serious sasquatch territory too).  The county is responsible for zoning and code enforcement, and had a stack of geologic studies warning them for at least ten years.  This same damn hill collapsed many times before. The flattened location is also a serious flood risk...so they let them build there on high foundations.

[albrecht]

And so it goes, VTAGeezer... yes, the local government undoubtedly botched things by allowing so much building on such a site; and yet due to the very libertarian leanings of the local populace, some people may well have just done what they wanted to do anyway.  I am conflicted on this story--I am genuinely sorry for the dreadful loss of life... and yet, it strikes me as akin to those knuckleheads who insist on putting up their stupid mansions in Malibu where they know things are incredibly dicey.  Stupidity piled upon stupidity....

True, but what about NO, San Fran, LA, and major cities that are built on known, major fault lines with even a modern history of bad quakes or below sea-level on soft ground next to our largest river? Normalcy bias just doesn't effect "libertarians" in the hinterland or rednecks in the hills.

[VtaGeezer]

True, but what about NO, San Fran, LA, and major cities that are built on known, major fault lines with even a modern history of bad quakes or below sea-level on soft ground next to our largest river? Normalcy bias just doesn't effect "libertarians" in the hinterland or rednecks in the hills.

They can't very well move cities and there are practical limits to what can be done with existing development. CA has imposed earthquake codes since the 1920s, and "red-zones" areas susceptible to slides and subsidence.  There's little can be done to protect people from themselves when they choose to continue living under a serious and imminent natural hazard, but they sure as hell should be stopped from moving onto in such places.  Someone is going to take it in the shorts;  Farmer Bob who wanted to sell the back 40, or the developer who bought it, or the couple who loved the view and bought the lot. But better that their risk should be capped at lost property value than kids buried under tons of mud.

[area51drone]

They can't very well move cities and there are practical limits to what can be done with existing development. CA has imposed earthquake codes since the 1920s, and "red-zones" areas susceptible to slides and subsidence.  There's little can be done to protect people from themselves when they choose to continue living under a serious and imminent natural hazard, but they sure as hell should be stopped from moving onto in such places.  Someone is going to take it in the shorts;  Farmer Bob who wanted to sell the back 40, or the developer who bought it, or the couple who loved the view and bought the lot. But better that their risk should be capped at lost property value than kids buried under tons of mud.

Well, we are staying in the California Adventure hotel and I have to say after the quake that literally just happened, I'm very glad we're in the newer of the hotels that Disney has.   It's a scary thought to think about a quake taking down your hotel with your kids in it. 

Those poor Oso people...

[albrecht]

They can't very well move cities and there are practical limits to what can be done with existing development. CA has imposed earthquake codes since the 1920s, and "red-zones" areas susceptible to slides and subsidence.  There's little can be done to protect people from themselves when they choose to continue living under a serious and imminent natural hazard, but they sure as hell should be stopped from moving onto in such places.  Someone is going to take it in the shorts;  Farmer Bob who wanted to sell the back 40, or the developer who bought it, or the couple who loved the view and bought the lot. But better that their risk should be capped at lost property value than kids buried under tons of mud.

I guess I missed the memo. You are saying that people are no longer allowed to move to LA, San Fran, or NO?

[VtaGeezer]

I guess I missed the memo. You are saying that people are no longer allowed to move to LA, San Fran, or NO?

Don't be ridiculous. I'm trying to explain to you that there's a difference between updated fire and building codes for urban areas with indefinite hazards, and turning a blind eye to the development of a specific plat in the boonies thats under imminent catastrophic threat as in Oso.  The real world isn't black-and-white.

[albrecht]

Don't be ridiculous. I'm trying to explain to you that there's a difference between updated fire and building codes for urban areas with indefinite hazards, and turning a blind eye to the development of a specific plat in the boonies thats under imminent catastrophic threat as in Oso.  The real world isn't black-and-white.

So for urban people dangers can be ignored, or slightly mollified by building codes, but for those living in a rural areas we should have more rules? Why should a person living in LA or San Fran be allowed to sell their property to a developer but "farmer brown" can't sell his back 40? Caveat Emptor is the solution, I say. But that means open information. To me the problem arises with this Oso thing is if buyers of the property didn't know about the risk and previous landslides. If the government, developers, and real estate agents covered it up or didn't disclose they should be punished civilly and criminally and hopefully right now have a lot on their conscience.

[VtaGeezer]

So for urban people dangers can be ignored, or slightly mollified by building codes, but for those living in a rural areas we should have more rules? Why should a person living in LA or San Fran be allowed to sell their property to a developer but "farmer brown" can't sell his back 40? Caveat Emptor is the solution, I say. But that means open information. To me the problem arises with this Oso thing is if buyers of the property didn't know about the risk and previous landslides. If the government, developers, and real estate agents covered it up or didn't disclose they should be punished civilly and criminally and hopefully right now have a lot on their conscience.

You're trying to equate a huge geographic area with moderate and diffuse risk with a few specific acres identified by experts as an imminent deadly catastrophe.  It's like comparing the risks from Russian roulette with a hunting accident.  More people are likely dead in Oso than died in the last major CA quake; the Northridge Quake in 1994, which was a 6.7 smack in middle of millions of people.  I recall disclosure laws when we sold our home in WA in 1996. The county had the Federal and State geo reports years ago and sat on them; I hope someone indicts the county officials and perhaps a realtor or two for nonfeasance and manslaughter, but then the prosecutor is another county official, isn't he.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

I hope someone indicts the county officials and perhaps a realtor or two for nonfeasance and manslaughter, but then the prosecutor is another county official, isn't he.

They will probably sue (or indict) themselves and let themselves off easy. When the insurers come in is when things get nasty.
I disagree with you on the building in SF and LA. About 20 years ago, the internal gossip on Wall Street was that if a major quake hit Tokyo it would bankrupt the world economy.  In LA and SF, the building is so dense and the property values are so high that a major quake could cripple the US economy for years.

In other Oso news, residents plan to rebuild
"And although rescuers are still sifting through rubble in “miserable” conditions for dozens of missing victims, the community is strong and will build a town that was better off than before the disaster, residents said.

“Oso is made up of extremely resilient people,” said Bonnie Rose, the manager of the Rhodes River Ranch and Restaurant, one of the few businesses in Oso."
http://goo.gl/mmfUi8

[yumyumtree]

In still more Oso news, a Bellingham man named Shayne Barco and his dog( named Stratus, I found out from the Internet), has been banned from the area after police said he's an imposter. I guess not just anybody can be running around up there--they have to be part of a recognized Search and Rescue or something. I had actually wondered about that. He has been interviewed and photographed by news media all over the country. This was in this mornings (Everett)Herald.

An opinion piece called "Second-guessing puts families last"by someone Jerry Cornfield in today's Herald also sort of dovetails with some of the comments above. According to him, it's indecent to begin criticizing people like John Pennington, head of Snohomish Co. Dept. of Emergency management so soon. Evidently a GOP senator had questioned, among other things, why he didnt ask for the National Guard sooner. I'm not really buying this guys arguments. Too soon is better than too late I believe because the more time is put on it, the more its pushed out of the spotlight and people's memories. That's the way things go.
Last year SnoCo was dealing with a corrupt executive who had been taking his mistress on dirty weekends on the county dime, and another character in his office who had been using an assumed name and the Freedom of Administration act to harass a blogger in the town of  Goldbar ( another hotbed of intrigue)and some other people he didnt like. That seemed about as bad as it could get. Then came this.

[area51drone]

In LA and SF, the building is so dense and the property values are so high that a major quake could cripple the US economy for years.

I highly doubt this.  If one rich googlite dies when his million dollar condo collapses into the SF hillside, another one will pop up in its place and probably grow the economy through all the demolition and new construction.  We've already seen major earthquakes in both those locations, and nothing changes outside of CA.   It's like New Orleans and Katrina - really, only the local and maybe regional economies were hit - I don't think it changed a thing in the NW or in CA.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

I highly doubt this.  If one rich googlite dies when his million dollar condo collapses into the SF hillside, another one will pop up in its place and probably grow the economy through all the demolition and new construction.  We've already seen major earthquakes in both those locations, and nothing changes outside of CA.   It's like New Orleans and Katrina - really, only the local and maybe regional economies were hit - I don't think it changed a thing in the NW or in CA.

A few years ago a gas explosion in San Bruno (cheaper and slightly south of SF) killed 8 people and destroyed 38 houses (single family homes). The total cost of that was $545 million-and that was corporate suits vs corporate suits.
Earthquake insurance is held by the State of California in possibly the craziest twists and turns you have ever seen. If a big quake happens its state vs corporate suits. Its going to be horrible. The Bay Bridge Earthquake that happened during the World Series had a terrible financial impact and there was all kind of hush-hush going on. Too bad Art Bell never did a show on it.

[area51drone]

A few years ago a gas explosion in San Bruno (cheaper and slightly south of SF) killed 8 people and destroyed 38 houses (single family homes). The total cost of that was $545 million-and that was corporate suits vs corporate suits.
Earthquake insurance is held by the State of California in possibly the craziest twists and turns you have ever seen. If a big quake happens its state vs corporate suits. Its going to be horrible. The Bay Bridge Earthquake that happened during the World Series had a terrible financial impact and there was all kind of hush-hush going on. Too bad Art Bell never did a show on it.

Again, I think the Bay Bridge one only had a local or regional impact.  The rest of the world just moves along.   I realize CA's economy is enormous, but they don't stop making movies because there is an earthquake, and pretty much every other business finds a way to continue if it can, bridges or no bridges.   Quoting Jurassic Park - Life, ahem, finds a way.

As for the insurance and CA going bankrupt, etc, the state always has an ace up its sleeve - and that is they can tell anyone to F-off.   All it takes is passing new laws to void old problems if they absolutely needed to.  Or, just go further into debt as governments like to do. 

[West of the Rockies]

It's disconcerting how we will follow this sort of thread until the next new disaster comes along that the media gloms onto. 

[yumyumtree]

What if the latest body to be found is unrelated to the slide, but a suicide, missing person or murder victim that was maybe there before the slide? I know--Ive seen too many movies.

[yumyumtree]

Update--the body has been ID'd as one of the missing. Now there is only one person left missing.

[albrecht]

Update--the body has been ID'd as one of the missing. Now there is only one person left missing.

Frankly I'm amazed that they can recover so many considering the slide's size, all the forest, and debris. If it were my family of course I would want the body recovered but, also, considering it the cost and these days most people cremate (or bury) their dead loved ones anyway I wonder if it is worth the cost and man-hours to recover when we know, at this point, that there is no possibility of anyone still living underneath the slide. Maybe that money/man-power better spent shoring up areas of new potential slides, rebuilding people's homes, etc? I don't know I've had relatives "lost at sea" in the old days (I didn't know them) and people didn't demand the searches as they do when there was no hope.

[yumyumtree]

I know, I though that too. I think that the search for bodies had basically been ended, but they found this individual anyway.
As far as I know, according to the coroner, all died of blunt force trauma, and therefore soon after the slide. So peoples' fears of people being in air pockets trapped someplace and things like that were not realized. Everybody who was going to be found alive was found right away.

[area51drone]

Frankly I'm amazed that they can recover so many considering the slide's size, all the forest, and debris. If it were my family of course I would want the body recovered but, also, considering it the cost and these days most people cremate (or bury) their dead loved ones anyway I wonder if it is worth the cost and man-hours to recover when we know, at this point, that there is no possibility of anyone still living underneath the slide. Maybe that money/man-power better spent shoring up areas of new potential slides, rebuilding people's homes, etc? I don't know I've had relatives "lost at sea" in the old days (I didn't know them) and people didn't demand the searches as they do when there was no hope.

I think it was easier to find these people because they were likely buried near or inside their homes, and once you found a piece of a house you knew you were close.

[Jackstar]

As big as it is, the missing/dead people are in there somewheres, and inevitably, as people pick through the wreckage, they will almost certainly be turned up.

There's a word you're looking for here, and it's grisly. It's not just the bodies that are being sought--there's cars, they have gasoline in them. Not to mention oil. Can't really leave that lying around in the watershed, now can one? There are insurance issues. There are liability issues. There are crushed houses filled with crushed valuables--and gold doesn't really crush.

Sure, there was a search for victims. How many living did they rescue? If it were even one, thank the living Christ. Now, in the meantime, there's plunder in them thar hills, and AIG Insurance knows just the team to send out to... the site.

The other word you're looking for now is ghoulish. Ach, that's life.