Turkey shoots down a Russian Su-24

[Yorkshire pud]

None of the three big cable "news" networks are trying whip up a frenzy of hysterical panic right now or even talking about it, so I take that as an indicator that there's probably not much to worry about at this point.

Yeah, well that's easy for you to think matey boy. I don't know if you've seen a map of the world that includes the bits outside the USA but across that wet bit east of NY, Newark, Philadelphia, Bermuda, Florida etc...is a lump of land, with sandy bits, green bits, hilly bits, more wet bits..

That's us..that bit.. Anyway, the big bit that's east of us is the bit that includes the bit that Putin lives in. His bit has lots of bigger bits that have holes in the ground that have pointy things with bits inside that give a really big bang when they land. We're near those bits. Very very close to those bits.

Thinking about that, makes my sphincter pucker a bit. Just a bit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34915752

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34915198

[norland2424]

This is what happens when you don't respect borders while staying quiet on comms, also it seems both governments are talking this over so its a good sign

[Robert Ghostwolf's Ghost]

Yeah, well that's easy for you to think matey boy. I don't know if you've seen a map of the world that includes the bits outside the USA but across that wet bit east of NY, Newark, Philadelphia, Bermuda, Florida etc...is a lump of land, with sandy bits, green bits, hilly bits, more wet bits..

That's us..that bit.. Anyway, the big bit that's east of us is the bit that includes the bit that Putin lives in. His bit has lots of bigger bits that have holes in the ground that have pointy things with bits inside that give a really big bang when they land. We're near those bits. Very very close to those bits.

Thinking about that, makes my sphincter pucker a bit. Just a bit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34915752

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34915198

Loud, unexpected noises make your sphincter pucker.  I'm not going to panic until Wolf Blitzer's puckers.

[VtaGeezer]

It's a terrible situation. Turkey should have simply given warning after warning without acting because the end result of shooting down a Russian plane is worse than having an errant plane in your airspace.

If you look at the radar track/map overlay released by the Turks (see my early post in this thread) you see the Su-24 track very briefly went over a narrow arm (1 km wide) of Turkish territory that extends deep into Syria.  I'm assuming they did it several times while orbiting a target in Syria, thus the numerous radio warnings.  USAF is saying they were in Turkish airspace for less than 30 seconds and may have been hit after it was back over Syria. This was done to protect the Turk-backed rebels being bombed; the incursion is an excuse. Erdogan has his own agenda and US policy is pretty much at his mercy here.  Putin now has an excuse to take down coalition aircraft in Syrian airspace with his SAMs.

[ItsOver]

Oh I guarantee he'll take advantage. It's Putin after all. The sad truth of this whole thing is that he's the real winner in all of this. The Ukraine situation can now be considered settled and Assad will eventually get his country back under control. It's a win-win for Vladimir.

Yes, you can count on it, SciFi.  Let me rephrase and say I hope he doesn't push his luck too much.  Of course, with O in office, Vladimir can get away with quite a bit.

[SciFiAuthor]

If you look at the radar track/map overlay released by the Turks (see my early post in this thread) you see the Su-24 track very briefly went over a narrow arm (1 km wide) of Turkish territory that extends deep into Syria.  I'm assuming they did it several times while orbiting a target in Syria, thus the numerous radio warnings.  USAF is saying they were in Turkish airspace for less than 30 seconds and may have been hit after it was back over Syria. This was done to protect the Turk-backed rebels being bombed; the incursion is an excuse.

Yeah, I think you've nailed it. It's a highly irresponsible move on Erdogan's part.

[ItsOver]

Loud, unexpected noises make your sphincter pucker.  I'm not going to panic until Wolf Blitzer's puckers.

[Robert Ghostwolf's Ghost]

Thinking about that, makes my sphincter pucker a bit. Just a bit.

Actually, Michael Horn and George had quite the pucker party on C2C last night. In addition to attempting to jam the square peg of Billy Meier's 1981 prediction into any round hole that would accommodate it, MH gave GN the vapors by claiming Meier's space people told him that Russia is going to invade the U.S. unless we add 309,000 troops to our military.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

Haha no kidding. These fuckers always find some way to cause a crisis and take our money from us.

[ItsOver]

Actually, Michael Horn and George had quite the pucker party on C2C last night. In addition to attempting to jam the square peg of Billy Meier's 1981 prediction into any round hole that would accommodate it, MH gave GN the vapors by claiming Meier's space people told him that Russia is going to invade the U.S. unless we add 309,000 troops to our military.

Hell, I'm panicking now.    Just 309,000 troops?  Not 310,000?  Thanks, Jorch.  Thanks, Mike.

[VtaGeezer]

Yes, you can count on it, SciFi.  Let me rephrase and say I hope he doesn't push his luck too much.  Of course, with O in office, Vladimir can get away with quite a bit.

The trouble is that Putin is on pretty firm ground with international law; he's supporting a formal and long time ally in a civil war against foreign-supported rebels.  The coalition has no legal grounds for action inside Syria.  I doubt it will escalate into direct confrontation, but don't be surprised to see a non-US coalition aircraft taken down over Syria.

[ItsOver]

The trouble is that Putin is on pretty firm ground with international law; he's supporting a formal and long time ally in a civil war against foreign-supported rebels.  The coalition has no legal grounds for action inside Syria.  I doubt it will escalate into direct confrontation, but don't be surprised to see a non-US coalition aircraft taken down over Syria.

I wouldn't be surprised.

[SciFiAuthor]

Yes, you can count on it, SciFi.  Let me rephrase and say I hope he doesn't push his luck too much.  Of course, with O in office, Vladimir can get away with quite a bit.

Yeah, I doubt O will do much. In fact, at this point, he should probably just pull us out of the conflict as far as Syria goes and focus on Iraq. Let Russia deal with Syria and reestablish Assad's control of the country. That's sadly the best option here I think.

[VtaGeezer]

Hell, I'm panicking now.    Just 309,000 troops?  Not 310,000?  Thanks, Jorch.  Thanks, Mike.

If he had said 319.5K, I'd be worried.

[VtaGeezer]

Yeah, I doubt O will do much. In fact, at this point, he should probably just pull us out of the conflict as far as Syria goes and focus on Iraq. Let Russia deal with Syria and reestablish Assad's control of the country. That's sadly the best option here I think.

I agree. The Kumbaya crowd managed to make Assad the policy priority after the Arab Spring and Libya.  Syria, another artificial "nation" carved from the Ottomans after WW I is just one more example of what happens when latent Arab tribalism finds a path back to the surface.  If Assad goes, it'll make Iraq look like a company party.

[SciFiAuthor]

I agree. The Kumbaya crowd managed to make Assad the policy priority after the Arab Spring and Libya.  Syria, another artificial "nation" carved from the Ottomans after WW I is just one more example of what happens when latent Arab tribalism finds a path back to the surface.  If Assad goes, it'll make Iraq look like a company party.

I agree. The best policy, as sad as this is, is to support whatever dictators are able to keep those people in line. It's the most stable, least lethal option for all. I feel like Henry Kissinger when saying that, but it's the sad truth.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

Russia is going to invade the U.S. unless we add 309,000 troops to our military.

At 6-10 support personnel per troop, that means the military would need to increase by 2 million (people) or more.

[VtaGeezer]

The plot thickens...seems this encroached area was originally Syrian but was annexed by Turkey by force in 1939 and Syria has never recognized it.  May be irrelevant but interesting. Whose maps are the Russian using?

[K_Dubb]

I agree. The best policy, as sad as this is, is to support whatever dictators are able to keep those people in line. It's the most stable, least lethal option for all. I feel like Henry Kissinger when saying that, but it's the sad truth.

I agree with you, time to get back to realpolitik.  I think W swayed a lot of us with his democracy talk which promised good things for the region, me included, and we're now repenting of our naiveté.  What's tragic is that going back to the status quo ante, splitting client states with Putin, is the best we can get at this point and we'd be damned lucky to get it.

[ItsOver]

The plot thickens...seems this encroached area was originally Syrian but was annexed by Turkey by force in 1939 and Syria has never recognized it.  May be irrelevant but interesting. Whose maps are the Russian using?

No doubt ones from Syria.

[chefist]

Either the Russians were confident Turkey wouldn't respond or the newer F16's are that damn good...they beat the F22 in dogfights recently...

[VtaGeezer]

Either the Russians were confident Turkey wouldn't respond or the newer F16's are that damn good...they beat the F22 in dogfights recently...

Ah yes...the $50K/hr, 2 hour MTBCF F-22, and the infamous F-35 that's routinely beaten by the upgraded but 40 year-old F-16 platform.  Yeah, our stuff has gotten sooo much better since we went from a dozen-plus competitive military aircraft makers to three arthritic monsters.  I doubt the Russians had any real concern about being fired upon. The Turks sucker punched them.

[ItsOver]

Either the Russians were confident Turkey wouldn't respond or the newer F16's are that damn good...they beat the F22 in dogfights recently...

I'm glad the A-10s are still flying, plus the 16s.

[Robert Ghostwolf's Ghost]

At 6-10 support personnel per troop, that means the military would need to increase by 2 million (people) or more.

I wasn't giving it my undivided attention, but 309,000 seemed to have a great deal of significance.  The Playdohans must not have considered the support personnel, or mabe they just do things differently on their mushroom planet.

[Robert Ghostwolf's Ghost]

I'm glad the A-10s are still flying, plus the 16s.

Love them Warthogs!  That's what were used to take out all those ISIS oil trucks last week. 

[ItsOver]

Love them Warthogs!  That's what we're used to take out all those ISIS oil trucks last week.

Ya.  You don't want one of those things on your ass.  Braaaaaappp! Poof!

[Robert Ghostwolf's Ghost]

Loud, unexpected noises make your sphincter pucker.  I'm not going to panic until Wolf Blitzer's puckers.

Perhaps I was a bit glib there, but I grew up during the height of the Cold War and spent a lot of terrified nights in bed wondering when the Soviet missiles were going to come raining down on us.  My sphincter done got all puckered out years ago.

[VtaGeezer]

Love them Warthogs!  That's what we're used to take out all those ISIS oil trucks last week.

They're amazing in action; a deadly ballet dancer of an aircraft.  I almost think an A-10 can turn inside a crop duster.

[bateman]

Meanwhile... http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/obama-honoring-spielberg-streisand-more-medal-freedom-n469106

[VtaGeezer]

Perhaps I was a bit glib there, but I grew up during the height of the Cold War and spent a lot of terrified nights in bed wondering when the Soviet missiles were going to come raining down on us.  My sphincter done got all puckered out years ago.

The trick is to live close to a major target; the neutrons travel faster than your neurons can fire, so if you're close enough for a lethal dose, you'll be dead before the thermal energy turns you into a tiki torch.