President Donald J. Trump

[albrecht]

FIFY

I have decided, after all the hand-wringing and "smart folks," griping about how our politicians and newscasters say "THE Ukraine" (even though Ukrainians insist it should be just "Ukraine") that I'm going to start, at least try, to use THE before every ethnic, racial, or country. (In the cases where I'm not using "those people.")

[VtaGeezer]

25% of Kasich voters and 13% of Cruz voters saying they will vote for Hillary:

25% of nothing is still nothing. Not much more impact from the loss of Cruz zealots.

[RealCool Daddio]

:
Considering he's eating Mexican food on Cinco de Mayo, it should be "Latinos", not "Hispanics". 

BTW, in the last few recent pictures of Trump I've seen he looks unwell.  His face is puffy and his skin is gray with pallor--not his usual vibrant shade of orange.

I mostly noticed how that fork looks like a freaking shovel in his tiny hands.

[albrecht]

Just scanning and just saw Fox with that O'Reilly guy has guy named David Rockefeller, Phd who is at something called MicrosoftResearch's predictwise.com, spouting off his predictions that Billary will win in a landslide. Rockefeller and Microsoft predicting the elections? Haha. I'm going to find Alex Jones and get his thoughts.....

[RealCool Daddio]

25% of nothing is still nothing. Not much more impact from the loss of Cruz zealots.

Umm, not sure what you mean here.  Doesn't Trump need MORE votes than Clinton in a general election?  What am I missing?

[GuerrillaUnReal]

Umm, not sure what you mean here.  Doesn't Trump need MORE votes than Clinton in a general election?  What am I missing?

That from your numbers Trump has the potential of getting 75% of Kasich's voters and 87% of Cruz's voters.

[albrecht]

Umm, not sure what you mean here.  Doesn't Trump need MORE votes than Clinton in a general election?  What am I missing?

The Electors will, regardless of the popular vote in cases where they can (which since illegals and dead people in some districts can vote maybe is pointless anyway there,) will want to make America Great Again and vote for The Donald! 

[RealCool Daddio]

Just scanning and just saw Fox with that O'Reilly guy has guy named David Rockefeller, Phd who is at something called MicrosoftResearch's predictwise.com, spouting off his predictions that Billary will win in a landslide. Rockefeller and Microsoft predicting the elections? Haha. I'm going to find Alex Jones and get his thoughts.....

Did you bother to check out the site, the methodology, and the guys credentials?  I did just now.  Doesn't seem like anything to laugh at.

On another note, you might want to look into confirmation bias, filter bubbles and search engines.  There is a whole world of information out there that is being hidden from you.

[chefist]

Not much of an answer if you think about it. This isn't a question of trade, it's a question of who to hire to make your product. Trump chooses to hire Chinese workers and make products in China because it costs him less, thereby increasing his profit. That decision has nothing to do with trade agreements, trade deficits or any other big picture factor. It's strictly about dollars and cents in Trump's pocket.

Trump does exactly what he criticizes other American corporations for doing. He hires foreigners when he could hire Americans. But that's never been his concern. His concern is increasing his personal fortune.

Uh, yes it is...you can trade, but only accords that work for both countries...no lop sided like it is today...

[RealCool Daddio]

That from your numbers Trump has the potential of getting 75% of Kasich's voters and 87% of Cruz's voters.

Indeed.  And Hillary will get the rest - 100s of thousands of votes.  I don't see how that is "nothing".  If you follow up thread, MV asserted that the numbers are swinging the other way.  Not saying he is wrong, but I can't find the polls he alluded to.  Given that (obviously) Trump will need to improve on the GOP numbers from 2012, sending GOP voters to Hillary seems like a bad strategy.

[RealCool Daddio]

That from your numbers Trump has the potential of getting 75% of Kasich's voters and 87% of Cruz's voters.

Is that 75% of nothing?

[bigchucka]

Just scanning and just saw Fox with that O'Reilly guy has guy named David Rockefeller, Phd who is at something called MicrosoftResearch's predictwise.com, spouting off his predictions that Billary will win in a landslide. Rockefeller and Microsoft predicting the elections? Haha. I'm going to find Alex Jones and get his thoughts.....

Alex Jones hopes that Donald Trump is a "sleeper cell" against the NWO.  He supports DT, but warned him on air that he better not end up stabbing his children in the back.

[RealCool Daddio]

Princeton statistical models, interesting if you are maths geek, but bad news for Trump supporters.  Discusses predictive value of polling through election cycles since the 1950's.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/

[MV/Liberace!]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/265330-some-dems-would-defect-for-trump-poll-shows

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-are-people-changing-their-party-affiliation-this-election-cycle/

[albrecht]

Did you bother to check out the site, the methodology, and the guys credentials?  I did just now.  Doesn't seem like anything to laugh at.

On another note, you might want to look into confirmation bias, filter bubbles and search engines.  There is a whole world of information out there that is being hidden from you.

Sure I know all about predictive programming.  I just find it interesting- the Rockefeller and Microsoft- big "no-no's" in many leftists and conspiracy circles (not me, necessarily, I thank John D. for the dividends and growth of the company, though have some problems with the current, conservative business strategy. But let the experts run it!)  Frankly, I wonder why more of you Bernie-types don't worry about how Microsoft was running elections during some of the primaries and big corporations, including foreign ones, who often run the machines that count the votes! Remember the potential manipulation could be taking away a valid vote from an illegal or dead person even in some districts!

[albrecht]

Princeton statistical models, interesting if you are maths geek, but bad news for Trump supporters.  Discusses predictive value of polling through election cycles since the 1950's.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/

It is weird that Microsoft's expert Rockefeller didn't predict Google or Apple and that whole Nokia thing? Gates should focus his experts on the business and not worry so much about vaccination programs in Africa or political predictions/manipulation. Money better well spent, at least to share-holders.

[RealCool Daddio]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/265330-some-dems-would-defect-for-trump-poll-shows

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-are-people-changing-their-party-affiliation-this-election-cycle/

The first link refers to the one I saw, from January.  As far as I can tell, it is the last major poll on the issue.  20% Dems would vote for Trump, 14% of Reps would vote for HRC. 

The other isn't a poll, and talks about people switching parties in general:

"Pennsylvania, which holds its party primaries on April 26, has already seen pretty hefty shifts since the beginning of the year, according to its department of state. Based on data that is updated weekly, nearly 50,000 Democrats in the state have switched to the Republican Party and more than 25,000 Republicans have switched to being Democrats. As for independents, nearly 32,000 of them have registered as Democrats and nearly 25,000 independents have registered as Republicans."

You said:

every poll shows significant numbers of democrats crossing over to vote for trump in primaries.

Sorry man, I still don't see that in the numbers.

[popple]

I was gonna share this video here anyways, but imagine my surprise & delight when a bellgab legend made an appearance @ 2:34!!!

https://youtu.be/VsZ5VAoHq3E

Falkie did you get a cut of the profits for this video?

[RealCool Daddio]

It is weird that Microsoft's expert Rockefeller didn't predict Google or Apple and that whole Nokia thing? Gates should focus his experts on the business and not worry so much about vaccination programs in Africa or political predictions/manipulation. Money better well spent, at least to share-holders.

The dude's name is Rothschild.  Adjust your tinfoil hat, you're getting your Zionist conspiracies screwed up.

[albrecht]

Alex Jones hopes that Donald Trump is a "sleeper cell" against the NWO.  He supports DT, but warned him on air that he better not end up stabbing his children in the back.

Ha. I would've thought he would be going for the McAfee for President stuff. I haven't heard his show in quite some time but I think saw him downtown a few weeks ago briefly. Not sure where he is living etc post-divorce. I think she got the prime properties.

[VtaGeezer]

Umm, not sure what you mean here.  Doesn't Trump need MORE votes than Clinton in a general election?  What am I missing?

In the end, Kasich's performance was abysmal, he had zero chance, and his voters were always going to end up with Clinton in November .  Similarly, Cruz was under 30% in most states and most of his voters would rather open a vein than vote for Clinton.  They'll do what Beck says and write-in Cruz.  Lost votes? Eh. They definitely will not vote Dem.

But don't worry; the lunatic far right is getting cranked up to rile up the same idiots that formed the Tea Party crush and Trump will be kneecapped.  I'm not ready to withdraw my prediction that Trump; presumptive nominee or not, will just capitulate in June under withering fire from both sides. 

[GuerrillaUnReal]

I was gonna share this video here anyways, but imagine my surprise & delight when a bellgab legend made an appearance @ 2:34!!!

https://youtu.be/VsZ5VAoHq3E

Falkie did you get a cut of the profits for this video?

2:34

[albrecht]

The dude's name is Rothschild.  Adjust your tinfoil hat, your getting your Zionist conspiracies screwed up.

My mistake, wasn't paying much attention since got a hockey game on the tablet app. Rockefellers were the good ones, not the "Joosish" ones (though some say different, but I forget all the theories.) 
ps: as you know, not all "joose" are Zionists! The leftists and SJWs are very careful in parsing this, so you should know better.

[popple]

2:34

Was this video made by a bellgabber or is falkie just that famous now? 

[aldousburbank]

The dude's name is Rothschild.  Adjust your tinfoil hat, you're getting your Zionist conspiracies screwed up.

Hey man, that's some funny stuff. Four bongs to you sir!

[Richard Groyper]

Praissseee Falkie!

[RealCool Daddio]

In the end, Kasich's performance was abysmal, he had zero chance, and his voters were always going to end up with Clinton in November .  Similarly, Cruz was under 30% in most states and most of his voters would rather open a vein than vote for Clinton.  They'll do what Beck says and write-in Cruz.  Lost votes? Eh. They definitely will not vote Dem.

But don't worry; the lunatic far right is getting cranked up to rile up the same idiots that formed the Tea Party crush and Trump will be kneecapped.  I'm not ready to withdraw my prediction that Trump; presumptive nominee or not, will just capitulate in June under withering fire from both sides.

Here's the problem I have with the narrative I have been hearing from the Trump camp.  To paraphrase:

1) Trump scored a massive win, obliterating the competition.  Hardly anyone was voting for the other candidates.

2) Who cares if Cruz and Kasich's people vote for HRC, because, as per 1) those votes don't mean anything.

Here is the raw data, votes to date in the primaries:

Trump: 10,647,150
Cruz: 7,260,491
Rubio: 3,466,432
Kasich: 3,756,745

13 million people (not counting Carson supporters, etc.) voted for candidates other than Trump.  He needs all of them, + independents and undecided voters, because the electoral demographics favor the Dems.  This "let em leave" bluster will guarantee a Dem route.  It's all fine and dandy for the Trump crowd to backslap and have their we told ya so moment - fair dues, you earned it - but you and your candidate should actually start taking this numbers stuff a lot more seriously if you don't want it coming back at you ten fold in November. 

Re: your prediction, I don't know.  If they could have stopped him, they would have by now.  What Trump fans view as the fear they have instilled in the hearts of the GOP old guard is true, but a good portion of the fear is about being obliterated in the House and Senate if Trump doesn't start taking the numbers seriously.  If there is any conspiracy against Trump, it is called "mathematics".

[RealCool Daddio]

Hey man, that's some funny stuff. Four bongs to you sir!

Love you brother, glad to see you back.

Can I send you some Bernie pamphlets?

PS: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/20/marijuana-legislation-coming-to-canada-next-spring.html 
Happy to have you up for a visit. 

[henge0stone]

You don't need the federal government involved in raising the minimum wage to provide a middle class lifestyle. This should be left up to the states. Have a federal minimum wage that acts as an absolute bottom, and let each state decide what is right for their own local economy.

But you know what happens?  Look at California. The unions lobbied for $15 and hour and are now lobbying for an exemption so that they can undercut everyone else. Crooks.

While leaving issues like this up to the states is a good idea on paper few states have come around to raising the minimum wage to anything near a living wage. Some studies show that with inflation it should be as high as 20 dollars an hour. When it comes to the point where workers are getting such little amount of money to live on that they require government assistance to get by then it becomes a national problem. Just one more example of corporations screwing over people and expecting the government to pay the difference.

[VtaGeezer]

Here's the problem I have with the narrative I have been hearing from the Trump camp.  To paraphrase:

1) Trump scored a massive win, obliterating the competition.  Hardly anyone was voting for the other candidates.

2) Who cares if Cruz and Kasich's people vote for HRC, because, as per 1) those votes don't mean anything.

Here is the raw data, votes to date in the primaries:

Trump: 10,647,150
Cruz: 7,260,491
Rubio: 3,466,432
Kasich: 3,756,745

13 million people (not counting Carson supporters, etc.) voted for candidates other than Trump.  He needs all of them, + independents and undecided voters, because the electoral demographics favor the Dems.  This "let em leave" bluster will guarantee a Dem route.  It's all fine and dandy for the Trump crowd to backslap and have their we told ya so moment - fair dues, you earned it - but you and your candidate should actually start taking this numbers stuff a lot more seriously if you don't want it coming back at you ten fold in November. 

Re: your prediction, I don't know.  If they could have stopped him, they would have by now.  What Trump fans view as the fear they have instilled in the hearts of the GOP old guard is true, but a good portion of the fear is about being obliterated in the House and Senate if Trump doesn't start taking the numbers seriously.  If there is any conspiracy against Trump, it is called "mathematics".

No one's disputing the math.  Trump will need every vote he can get.  But I'm saying he was never likely to get those hold-out minorities of Kasich and Cruz voters. Its not bluster and its not denial.  Trump has a virtually insurmountable climb. But so would any of the post-Tea Party Republicans.  What you're forgetting is that four short months ago ALL the political experts, pollsters, pundits and erudite would have bet their first born that Trump could NEVER win the nomination against those well funded and organized political pros backed by lavishly funded PACs. Your ignoring that many of Cruz's votes later in the race were from "strategic" voters to stop Trump, but will revert to the GOP candidate in Nov even if its the antiChrist from Brooklyn. And you're omitting any percentage of the 10+M (?) Sanders voters who are going to be very angry at the superdelegate scam when the coronation takes place in Philly, while hearing much the same economics from Trump.  They're not all SJWs willing to bend to the will of Clinton Inc to do ever more penance for the injustices of their forebears.