Coronavirus 2020

[albrecht]

There was a study that came out last week I think showing that asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission (the reason we are wearing masks and staying in even though we are healthy) is negligible.  But one of the things I love about this whole thing is that, since it is a Chinese study, relatively few people are promoting it who otherwise would be all over it.  Circumstances stubbornly refusing to conform to anyone's narrative get ignored.

Personally I think that asymptomatic transmission will turn out to be one of those lies told to us because they are good for us:  remove the stigma of masks if everyone is wearing them, the sick don't feel shamed into being responsible since everyone is supposed to act like they are contagious, encourage staying at home and society-wide germ paranoia which is ultimately beneficial for controlling spread.  A lot of stuff not strictly scientifically accurate but designed to control the herd.

But why trust a Chinese "study." Conceivably they could be promoting the ideas to spread the virus(es) that they sent out- whether by accident, natural, or on purpose. As they have for centuries due to their animal husbandry and weird practices. Or trying for damage-control but obfuscating and claiming that the latest Chinese virus was no fault of their own but 'others' who didn't handle this well. Never trust a commie except to be a commie.

[K_Dubb]

Got it. Here you go.

Ha ha ha.  Could see that one coming a mile away.

[whoozit]

Personally I think that asymptomatic transmission will turn out to be one of those many lies told to us because they are good for us to expand control of us:

...At best the powers that be think we are too stupid to do what’s necessary, at worst they think we are thereto order around.  I admire your optimism but I don’t think it is warranted if you objectively look at what’s going on.  Remember at first we were going to stay home two weeks to flatten the infection curve.   When it did start to flatten the fixation turned to the number of deaths.  When that slowed down the fixation turned to the results of PCR tests spun up many times more than usual.  Presence of the viral genetic material in these overly spun up tests does not show whether someone is actively infected or contagious with COVID, only that some viral genetic material was found.  With the number of cycles run a farting flea on your street could be the source of genetic material found in the sample.  The inventor of PCR has stated many times that is not a tool to test for infection. Yet is the latest goalpost being used to measure progress.

[K_Dubb]

But why trust a Chinese "study." Conceivably they could be promoting the ideas to spread the virus(es) that they sent out- whether by accident, natural, or on purpose. As they have for centuries due to their animal husbandry and weird practices. Or trying for damage-control but obfuscating and claiming that the latest Chinese virus was no fault of their own but 'others' who didn't handle this well. Never trust a commie except to be a commie.

Yeah and if the Chinese had proven asymptomatic transmission you'd say it was a Communist plot to keep us all locked down so they could waltz right in singing the Internationale  :

It was a big study, I think upwards of 10,000 cases, and those kind of studies are only possible in regimes where people cooperate with the government instead of just hanging up on their poor contact tracers trying to enroll them.  God bless America.

[K_Dubb]

...At best the powers that be think we are too stupid to do what’s necessary, at worst they think we are thereto order around.  I admire your optimism but I don’t think it is warranted if you objectively look at what’s going on.  Remember at first we were going to stay home two weeks to flatten the infection curve.   When it did start to flatten the fixation turned to the number of deaths.  When that slowed down the fixation turned to the results of PCR tests spun up many times more than usual.  Presence of the viral genetic material in these overly spun up tests does not show whether someone is actively infected or contagious with COVID, only that some viral genetic material was found.  With the number of cycles run a farting flea on your street could be the source of genetic material found in the sample.  The inventor of PCR has stated many times that is not a tool to test for infection. Yet is the latest goalpost being used to measure progress.

PCR has a long, proven history used to reconstruct genomes from Neanderthals etc. and the sort of amplification it does is by design.  How you interpret the presence of covid in your sample is up to debate, I agree, but this should surprise no one who actually understands how they work.

The case you are making, though, is that PCR tests are being used to exaggerate the scope of the problem which might hold true were not hospitalizations at dangerous levels in some areas and excess deaths compared to last year closely matching the reported covid totals.  We kind of know the scope of things now from many different angles, and I doubt people are using test result case counts alone to decide anything.  That was last spring.

[Dr. MD MD]

Yeah and if the Chinese had proven asymptomatic transmission you'd say it was a Communist plot to keep us all locked down so they could waltz right in singing the Internationale  :

It was a big study, I think upwards of 10,000 cases, and those kind of studies are only possible in regimes where people cooperate with the government instead of just hanging up on their poor contact tracers trying to enroll them.  God bless America.

So naive, nestled in his Palm Springs estate. It would be adorable if it wasn’t so sad and pathetic.

[albrecht]

Yeah and if the Chinese had proven asymptomatic transmission you'd say it was a Communist plot to keep us all locked down so they could waltz right in singing the Internationale  :

It was a big study, I think upwards of 10,000 cases, and those kind of studies are only possible in regimes where people cooperate with the government instead of just hanging up on their poor contact tracers trying to enroll them.  God bless America.

"Live Free or Die."     God Bless America! 

10,000 cases out of a population of? Even if JUST in the PRC that is a negligible % of the population. Considering the world's population that study is what % of the population? Sure I'm sure someone will talk statistics and it was good sampling in those 10,000 people, somewhere in the PRC.  Where is this 'study' and has it been peer reviewed? Longitudinal? Where published?

[Juan]

Why are hospitalizations up in only some areas?  Where I live now, the hospital system covers two counties and has seven patients with covid.

[K_Dubb]

So naive, nestled in his Palm Springs estate. It would be adorable if it wasn’t so sad and pathetic.

Cute manties, doc!

[Walks_At_Night]

Why are hospitalizations up in only some areas?  Where I live now, the hospital system covers two counties and has seven patients with covid.

I blame Senda.

He's live right this instant. Crowing about that big two grand check he is gonna get. Not an ounce of regret about that hospitalization spike.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2GJW09yAeI

[whoozit]

PCR has a long, proven history used to reconstruct genomes from Neanderthals etc. and the sort of amplification it does is by design.  How you interpret the presence of covid in your sample is up to debate, I agree, but this should surprise no one who actually understands how they work.

The case you are making, though, is that PCR tests are being used to exaggerate the scope of the problem which might hold true were not hospitalizations at dangerous levels in some areas and excess deaths compared to last year closely matching the reported covid totals.  We kind of know the scope of things now from many different angles, and I doubt people are using test result case counts alone to decide anything.  That was last spring.

You missed the entire point of my post but I agree with you on how tricky it is to use PCR as a diagnostic test.  The point was the constantly moving goalposts for success, form slow down hospitalizations, to looking at death counts to looking at “infections” using. Non-diagnostic tool.  I know that hospitalizations are up in my area, but it is still unclear if it is COVID or the flu.  I suspect it is both. I saw the number excess deaths over last year and remember it was over well 200K more so it does invalidate earlier arguments I heard where every death was being attributed to COVID.  200-300k is a large number and seems to jibe with the number of deaths attributed to COVID.

[WOTR]

That's a pretty spineless way to call somebody a liar. You're obviously perfect for the GabCast.

No one pays me. NOT ANYTHING, NOT ANYONE. If this were the Old West... I wouldn't have bothered writing this post I would have read what you wrote, and then immediately called you out, and then immediately plugged you right through your red-blooded American heart.

Quick question: you want to try that one again? As I've been called a liar just a few too many times this year, and iif t happens three more times, I'm going to get a little metal that I can affix to my hat, so I got that going for me.

Your move. Zugzwang.

I think it's adorable how you take everything literally. Whoozit has died 3 times... Somebody paid you for an endorsement of a poster who (in all likelihood) does not wish to be on a podcast to host... It must be hard to go through life with that particular sense of humour.

Carry on.

[whoozit]

Whoozit has died 3 times...

I’d go for a fourth but that would be silly.  Unless someone paid me.

[albrecht]

I’d go for a fourth but that would be silly.  Unless someone paid me.

According to a couple posts above, and depending on your financial circumstances, the checks might be coming.

[K_Dubb]

You missed the entire point of my post but I agree with you on how tricky it is to use PCR as a diagnostic test.  The point was the constantly moving goalposts for success, form slow down hospitalizations, to looking at death counts to looking at “infections” using. Non-diagnostic tool.  I know that hospitalizations are up in my area, but it is still unclear if it is COVID or the flu.  I suspect it is both. I saw the number excess deaths over last year and remember it was over well 200K more so it does invalidate earlier arguments I heard where every death was being attributed to COVID.  200-300k is a large number and seems to jibe with the number of deaths attributed to COVID.

Haha yeah I guess I take shifting goalposts as a given here, trying to cajole people into taking the threat seriously.  Government here doesn't have real control over anything compared to other countries (thank God) so their tools are really mass panic and targeted citations of a few barber shops and bars.  If people decided en masse to ignore it, there's nothing they could do.  Mostly they are hollering and waving their arms trying to look like they are doing something.

[WOTR]

...So even the 'experts' are getting 'Rona fatigue and not, seemingly, appreciating personally how 'serious' it is, as they talk about it.

I think if it were Ebola, nobody would be fatigued. But when you see most people recover... Well, it's hard to keep playing the game day after day...

[WOTR]

I’d go for a fourth but that would be silly.  Unless someone paid me.

So- just what is your price?*

*Asking for K_Dubb. 

**Also, do you have any 45's in the basement gym?

[Walks_At_Night]

I’d go for a fourth but that would be silly.  Unless someone paid me.

So the fact that you are mucking with Feigl-Ding's figures is not satisfaction enough?

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1343621296257724417

[whoozit]

So- just what is your price?*

*Asking for K_Dubb. 

**Also, do you have any 45's in the basement gym?

I use 60’s, 45’s are for children.

[K_Dubb]

So- just what is your price?*

*Asking for K_Dubb. 

**Also, do you have any 45's in the basement gym?

I don't want him to die a fourth time what kind of heartless monster do you take me for?!?!?

[K_Dubb]

I use 60’s, 45’s are for children.

Hot.

[whoozit]

My sister survived the ‘rona so my parents had three deaths of their two children with one survivor.

[K_Dubb]

So far both my sisters in Alaska have probably had it this month, not sick enough to go in and get tested but likely got it from people (BIL/boss) who were.  Was very grateful for the thousand-mile distancing around my folks this Christmas.

It's funny, my big sis works for a Native corporation that took it very seriously, setting up roadblocks in the spring because of all the fat diabetics among their elders, and now everyone in the management office has had it, probably because the boss decided to get on a plane to DC last month.  Hopefully they can keep it out of their little villages they guarded so carefully but now it's right at their door.

[albrecht]

So far both my sisters in Alaska have probably had it this month, not sick enough to go in and get tested but likely got it from people (BIL/boss) who were.  Was very grateful for the thousand-mile distancing around my folks this Christmas.

It's funny, my big sis works for a Native corporation that took it very seriously, setting up roadblocks in the spring because of all the fat diabetics among their elders, and now everyone in the management office has had it, probably because the boss decided to get on a plane to DC last month.  Hopefully they can keep it out of their little villages they guarded so carefully but now it's right at their door.

I heard that it was hitting Blackfeet Res Nation hard. And people there already so much comorbity and poverty. and winter already been tough. Not good. The interesting thing is there they are in "Phase 1" ('stay at home,' no travel off nation without quarantine, and night curfew) but here Phase 4 is 'stay at home' and 5 begins curfew.  Different places use different terms, numbers, and colors which further confuses things. I hear "Phase 1" and figure that means safe and almost normal....there the opposite.

[WOTR]

I don't want him to die a fourth time what kind of heartless monster do you take me for?!?!?

Oh. You had thought that I was asking his price for dying a fourth time?

Nope... 

[WOTR]

My sister survived the ‘rona so my parents had three deaths of their two children with one survivor.

I'm sorry. But I assumed it would be 3 deaths of their 2 children with 2 survivors. How do you plan to die a fourth time if you are already dead? 

[whoozit]

I'm sorry. But I assumed it would be 3 deaths of their 2 children with 2 survivors. How do you plan to die a fourth time if you are already dead? 

I blew my cover.  Run away!  This statistics stuff is so confusing.

[Dr. MD MD]

I blew my cover.  Run away!  This statistics stuff is so confusing.

I knew it. :

[WOTR]

I blew my cover.  Run away!  This statistics stuff is so confusing.

No, no NO! The first rule of both Bellgab (and politics) is to never admit that you were wrong in any way, whatsoever. The second rule is to double down on your position. And then finally, keep repeating it (with increasing anger) over, and over until people finally give up.

Your cover was not blown. You are simply dead until such time as you chose to animate again. Life is easier dead. As such, your statistics are correct.

Please, pay attention and follow the life advice contained this classic bellgab song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPObzJkWueY

[K_Dubb]

Oh. You had thought that I was asking his price for dying a fourth time?

Nope... 

I see.  Well, between those 60-lb. dumbbells and raised pork pies, as well as his excellent taste in coffee, it is only a matter of time before he is fixed in my lustful gaze.