Malaysian Air MH17 crash

[Ms. C]

Oh my ....

Reuters just reported that another  Malaysia Airlines passenger plane has reportedly crashed in Ukraine, with 295 people were on board at the time.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-ukraine-crash-airplane-idUSKBN0FM1TU20140717

[paladin1991]

Holy Crap.

[George49]

You beat me to it! Can't believe this has happened again!

[VtaGeezer]

Ukrainians are claiming the Russians shot it down.  They shot down a Ukrainian cargo plane yesterday. If it was shot down, the Russians will blame Ukraine and it will be hard to prove who fired the missile since the Ukrainians use the same weapons.  There's also a new report that the Russian separatists who claimed the shoot-down yesterday were bragging today that that they did it again about the time the Malayian plane went down.

[UnscreenedCaller]

The latest news is that it was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpar and was shot down by a BUK surface to air missile 20 miles outside the Russian border. All of this begs the question of why it was shot down, and what the connection is between this flight and the first Malaysia flight. I'm not a conspiracy buff, but this smacks of something about the first flight that wasn't made public. There are no coinshidenshes.

[albrecht]

Awful and this will stir things up because probably a lot of Europeans on it, maybe some Americans also and the Ukrainians and Russians will be blaming each other. I was surprised that airspace was still open to commercial flights! Tragic.

Frankly, I think the same thing happened to the MH 370 (likely by fighter or ship defense systems) but since it was over water and due to the political stress in the region it was covered up.

[HorrorRetro]

Really horrific. 

http://news.sky.com/story/1302864/malaysian-plane-shot-down-with-295-on-board

[Yorkshire pud]

I think someone has been trigger happy believing it was a Ukranian transport aircraft. No excuse for it, but could be an explanation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-28354787

[paladin1991]

Okay, I gotta ask.  Why are commercial flights being flown over war zones?  And who books a flight on one?

[b_dubb]

I think the message here is if you want to travel to or from Malaysia TAKE A BOAT

[albrecht]

I think someone has been trigger happy believing it was a Ukranian transport aircraft. No excuse for it, but could be an explanation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-28354787

Would the ethnic Russian rebels have such a robust system? This plane was too high to be hit by a "Stinger" or equivalent MANPAD system. It is claimed by some news stories that some type of Buk system took it down (how they know this I do not know.) But that is a more serious piece of equipment that, I would think, only real military would have (both Ukraine or Russian) unless stuff was taken over in the chaos by some group, or if Russia provided them to rebels. I would think it is more likely that some "real" military (on either side) was responsible due to size and likely training necessary to use Buk system,  but I don't really know what matériel the paramilitaries or rebels on either side might have or have seized.

[Eddie Coyle]

Okay, I gotta ask.  Why are commercial flights being flown over war zones?  And who books a flight on one?

     Asian pilots are the new Asian drivers.

[Yorkshire pud]

Would the ethnic Russian rebels have such a robust system? This plane was too high to be hit by a "Stinger" or equivalent MANPAD system. It is claimed by some news stories that some type of Buk system took it down (how they know this I do not know.) But that is a more serious piece of equipment that, I would think, only real military would have (both Ukraine or Russian) unless stuff was taken over in the chaos by some group, or if Russia provided them to rebels. I would think it is more likely that some "real" military (on either side) was responsible due to size and likely training necessary to use Buk system,  but I don't really know what matériel the paramilitaries or rebels on either side might have or have seized.

Guy on BBC from Janes Defence Weekly said it's unlikely (But not impossible) the rebels have the capability; The Ukrainians have no anti aircraft systems currently deployed (They don't need to), that leaves the options a bit limited to one. This is going to be some serious diplomatic shit.

[VtaGeezer]

The latest news is that it was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpar and was shot down by a BUK surface to air missile 20 miles outside the Russian border. All of this begs the question of why it was shot down, and what the connection is between this flight and the first Malaysia flight. I'm not a conspiracy buff, but this smacks of something about the first flight that wasn't made public. There are no coinshidenshes.

You gotta be nuts to make that connection.  I'm f'ing amazed that commercial flights are still flying routes through a hostile area where aircraft are being shot down...to save on fuel no doubt.  The world is full of coincidence. Noory's "no coincidences" dictum is just BS to stroke C2C's overly paranoid base.

[Kelt]

The Russians are supplying the 'rebels' (read Russian special forces) with equipment... and according to the Ukranians the 'rebels' also have military aircraft.

Lot of dead Cloggies... Cloggies are NATO members... this would be the excuse NATO requires to involve itself militarily in order to 'protect NATO interests'.

Fuck it... I was sick of living anyway.

[VtaGeezer]

Would the ethnic Russian rebels have such a robust system? This plane was too high to be hit by a "Stinger" or equivalent MANPAD system. It is claimed by some news stories that some type of Buk system took it down (how they know this I do not know.) But that is a more serious piece of equipment that, I would think, only real military would have (both Ukraine or Russian) unless stuff was taken over in the chaos by some group, or if Russia provided them to rebels. I would think it is more likely that some "real" military (on either side) was responsible due to size and likely training necessary to use Buk system,  but I don't really know what matériel the paramilitaries or rebels on either side might have or have seized.

Yes, it would take a large AA missile to reach 33K ft.  But remember Korean Air 007 and Iran Air 655.  Rogues and idiots happen, military training or not.  Likely that it was a Russian with a itchy trigger finger.  There are many Russian Army infiltrators among the "rebels"; wouldn't surprise me it at all if the Russians were behind it directly or indirectly.

[Yorkshire pud]

You gotta be nuts to make that connection.  I'm f'ing amazed that commercial flights are still flying routes through a hostile area where aircraft are being shot down...to save on fuel no doubt.  The world is full of coincidence. Noory's "no coincidences" dictum is just BS to stroke C2C's overly paranoid base.

Lufthansa have announced they're by passing the area; I would think that all the other direct over flies will be diverted. And yes, it will be to save fuel, every flight is a cost/ efficiency/ time constrained. They didn't expect that anyone would be shooting missiles to over 30000 feet, let alone at airliners. I doubt any of the operators will be decorated with medals though. 

18:20: The UK department of transport issues a statement stating: "Flights already airborne are being routed around the area by air traffic control in the region." Pilots around the world are being advised to plan routes that avoid the area, it adds.

18:19: Malaysia Airlines is expected to hold a press conference on the incident at 04:00 local time (21:00 BST), the BBC understands.

18:16: The plane went down near the village of Grabovo, which is currently under the control of armed pro-Russian separatists. The region has been the scene of severe fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatist rebels in recent days, AP reports.

18:16: As well as Lufthansa, Russian airliner Transaero has also announced it is avoiding Ukrainian airspace for all future flights following the Malaysia airlines crash, Reuters reports.

[UnscreenedCaller]

You gotta be nuts to make that connection.  I'm f'ing amazed that commercial flights are still flying routes through a hostile area where aircraft are being shot down...to save on fuel no doubt.  The world is full of coincidence. Noory's "no coincidences" dictum is just BS to stroke C2C's overly paranoid base.

ok. Thanks for the schooling.

[Uncle Duke]

NATO almost certainly has electronic warfare aircraft airborne in the area that would pick up and identify both search and fire control radar signals, possibly even "launch" voice commands over radio.   Similarly, there are satellite surveillance systems looking down on that region that would pick up at least the thermal signature of a full-size SAM launch.  No question we'll know exactly who did this, but whether such intel information is released to the public will be a political decision.

[albrecht]

NATO almost certainly has electronic warfare aircraft airborne in the area that would pick up and identify both search and fire control radar signals, possibly even "launch" voice commands over radio.   Similarly, there are satellite surveillance systems looking down on that region that would pick up at least the thermal signature of a full-size SAM launch.  No question we'll know exactly who did this, but whether such intel information is released to the public will be a political decision.

And with the state of paranoia, mistrust of government(s), a state of civil war in the region, and the ability of technology even if the information is released truthfully many people, on all sides (even in non-belligerent nations), won't trust it. And claim manipulated, computer generated, a plot by X against Z, propaganda by the other guy, etc.

[Uncle Duke]

Decision to release such information will have more to do with what the US/NATO thinks they'd have to gain vice letting the world know our intel gathering and analysis capabilities/methods.  Same decision had to be made when the Russians shot down KAL 007, Reagan overruled his senior military advisors in releasing the actual voice communications between the Soviet fighter pilot and his ground control.  Before that incident, very few people in the world knew (or cared) about Masawa AB or "elephant cages".

[Eddie Coyle]

     TWA 800 went down 18 years ago this very night...and how/why it happened remains murky to this day. Can't imagine the "truth" being easily found in today's episode.

[Kelt]

From the BBC...

19:00: A tweet (in Russian) from a key Twitter account used by pro-Russian separatists, in which they claim to have captured a Buk surface-to-air missile system, has now been deleted, BBC Monitoring observes. Ukrainians say the Malaysian plane could have been downed with a Buk, but pro-Russian rebels have now denied they have it.

[albrecht]

Decision to release such information will have more to do with what the US/NATO thinks they'd have to gain vice letting the world know our intel gathering and analysis capabilities/methods.  Same decision had to be made when the Russians shot down KAL 007, Reagan overruled his senior military advisors in releasing the actual voice communications between the Soviet fighter pilot and his ground control.  Before that incident, very few people in the world knew (or cared) about Masawa AB or "elephant cages".

I would think most of the world knows, or at least imagines, that the major powers but especially the USA can see/record most things, especially in an area of known conflict right on the borders with NATO countries.

I'm trying to jar my memory and it wasn't so long ago. But remember when the Polish President and much of the Polish cabinet and defense heads were killed in a plane crash in Russia? That was hugely suspect (at the time) considering the political stuff going on and taking out so many important people. I think all kinds of communications were released for that flight but I'm not sure if NATO ever did? I would think NATO would've been keeping an eye on that flight!

Having said that there are still some that claim KAL 007 had to do with Rep. Larry McDonald being on the plane. And some even claim he and some other people survived and were imprisoned. I would imagine the the Russian/Ukrainian people are even more paranoid that most Americans (due to decades of corruption and communism where paranoia was a logical thought pattern) that no matter what is released there will be vast amounts of people who won't believe it.

[Kelt]

Thing is, if a SAM is launched from an area where two sides are in open conflict how do you determine the loyalties of the small team who launched the missile... assuming there's even hi-res recon images showing them pulling the trigger in glorious Technicolorâ,,¢?

It'll be known who did it already, but from on-the-ground intel rather than overflights by satellites or Spy Planes.

How the info is disseminated will depend entirely on political prudence rather than culpability.

[VtaGeezer]

And with the state of paranoia, mistrust of government(s), a state of civil war in the region, and the ability of technology even if the information is released truthfully many people, on all sides (even in non-belligerent nations), won't trust it. And claim manipulated, computer generated, a plot by X against Z, propaganda by the other guy, etc.

You forgot to include holograms.

[VtaGeezer]

The wreckage is apparently in separatist territory, so the question is whether any investigation team, let alone Ukrainians, will be allowed access.

[Uncle Duke]

I would think most of the world knows, or at least imagines, that the major powers but especially the USA can see/record most things, especially in an area of known conflict right on the borders with NATO countries.

I'm trying to jar my memory and it wasn't so long ago. But remember when the Polish President and much of the Polish cabinet and defense heads were killed in a plane crash in Russia? That was hugely suspect (at the time) considering the political stuff going on and taking out so many important people. I think all kinds of communications were released for that flight but I'm not sure if NATO ever did? I would think NATO would've been keeping an eye on that flight!

Having said that there are still some that claim KAL 007 had to do with Rep. Larry McDonald being on the plane. And some even claim he and some other people survived and were imprisoned. I would imagine the the Russian/Ukrainian people are even more paranoid that most Americans (due to decades of corruption and communism where paranoia was a logical thought pattern) that no matter what is released there will be vast amounts of people who won't believe it.

In the SIGINT/ELINT world, it isn't a question of "if" a nation has a specific capability, it's methods, sources, and processing speed that potential advesaries want to know.  In many cases, intelligence information is classified not for its content, but for how it was collected/processed and how quickly it was made actionable.

[Bart Ell]

Note to self: Putting "mal" in your name is bad. Literally.
Not the twatty literally that people tend to use these days. Real literally.

[Camazotz Automat]

     TWA 800 went down 18 years ago this very night...and how/why it happened remains murky to this day. Can't imagine the "truth" being easily found in today's episode.

Agreed. The Bermuda Triangle has jack squat compared to a government's ability to obfuscate the true events of an aircraft's demise/disappearance.

Of all days, Mr. Coyle, today I could have done without hearing about an airliner's string being severed in the diorama.

I now feel a bit fidgety and have no fidget with which to fidget.

(That does not necessarily mean I need to, or will get, blasted to the gills. It merely increases the odds.)

I yearn for leisurely travel by zeppelin. What is everybody's rush?

If the Skunk Works conspiracy theorists are half right right, we have the technology to construct plenty of giant black triangle rigid airships that could be enjoyed by civilians instead of being utilized as helicopter-carrier release platforms.  What exactly, DID Art Bell see in the desert, other than some type of high tech dirigible/aerostat?

Fuck it. I need Pegasus.