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20151022 - Douglas Mulhall – Nanotechnology - Live Show Chat Thread

Started by jazmunda, October 22, 2015, 08:28:51 PM




Dyna-X

Ahh the caller asked for an Art Bell top 100, well I have a top 40 for MITD - to be updated again soon - and a full list of the 329 known bumpers to date on this thread - excuse the shameless plug ;)
http://bellgab.com/index.php/topic,8296.120.html



coaster

Quote from: Dyna-X on October 23, 2015, 12:26:28 AM
Ahh the caller asked for an Art Bell top 100, well I have a top 40 for MITD - to be updated again soon - and a full list of the 329 known bumpers to date on this thread - excuse the shameless plug ;)
http://bellgab.com/index.php/topic,8296.120.html
Very cool.



inuk2600

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on October 23, 2015, 12:20:09 AM
It's all about viability. Flying cars never were. They need tons of fuel and have no practical use for people when you get down to it. Just because a 1960's cartoon predicted them doesn't mean that they make sense. Now if someone had talked about self-driving cars, the curve there has proven to be WAY faster than any futurist could have ever predicted even two years ago.

I'm not saying it's not viable but the complexities and barriers are way underestimated and will limit any major advances towards the human-technological singularity within the next 50 years.

GeoNemesis

I've got a singularity in my basement too, it's replaced my septic tank!



Did the drugs finally kick in for everyone? That segment got silly.


trostol

Quote from: jazmunda on October 23, 2015, 12:29:15 AM
Did the caller just say the s word?

yup..but i could see how he missed it..was breaking up a bit at that point

coaster

A sentient black hole? Smoke more guy, you're not quite high enough.

Nothing got sabotaged, no one had a social media temper tantrum and no one got shot at tonight. Progress?

Quote from: inuk2600 on October 23, 2015, 12:28:54 AM
I'm not saying it's not viable but the complexities and barriers are way underestimated and will limit any major advances towards the human-technological singularity withing the next 50 years.

The limiting factor has always been how quickly humans could go through development cycles, considering the economics of marketing each new generation of technology.  As soon as artificial intelligence can design itself, those limits are gone presuming the machines can be supplied with enough materials and energy to keep them progressing.

SciFiAuthor

Quote from: inuk2600 on October 23, 2015, 12:28:54 AM
I'm not saying it's not viable but the complexities and barriers are way underestimated and will limit any major advances towards the human-technological singularity withing the next 50 years.

What indicators are there that say that? I can't find any. The big problem is that most people buy into things like the Jetson's where flying cars are predicted and when that doesn't happen they poo poo any predictions that are made by futurists. They paid attention to a cartoon, but not the actual futurists of the period.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD7KYbfLTyw

Gumby, Dammit

Quote from: GeoNemesis on October 23, 2015, 12:28:57 AM
I've got a singularity in my basement too, it's replaced my septic tank!
Sometimes only one comes out. Then tomorrow, there's another one.

Gumby, Dammit

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on October 23, 2015, 12:32:02 AM
What indicators are there that say that? I can't find any. The big problem is that most people buy into things like the Jetson's where flying cars are predicted and when that doesn't happen they poo poo any predictions that are made by futurists. They paid attention to a cartoon, but not the actual futurists of the period.

SciFi...c'mon man...is there really a difference?

Gumby, Dammit

Quote from: coaster on October 23, 2015, 12:29:59 AM
A sentient black hole? Smoke more guy, you're not quite high enough.
I think he was using a euphemism. Probably a mason.



Catsmile

Quote from: jazmunda on October 23, 2015, 12:29:15 AM
Did the caller just say the s word?

Yes.. the "S" word!
Thought I was going to pass out when I heard it...
or maybe my corset is 2 tight.

inuk2600

Quote from: Georgie For President 2216 on October 23, 2015, 12:31:49 AM
The limiting factor has always been how quickly humans could go through development cycles, considering the economics of marketing each new generation of technology.  As soon as artificial intelligence can design itself, those limits are gone presuming the machines can be supplied with enough materials and energy to keep them progressing.

That's a good argument and I agree for the most part, except the development cycle doesn't instantly disappear but it decreases on a curve. The human mind and conscience is complex enough to stump the artificially intelligent computer well into that curve. I don't think it will get there within the next 50 years.

Quote from: inuk2600 on October 23, 2015, 12:39:37 AM
That's a good argument and I agree for the most part, except the development cycle doesn't instantly disappear but it decreases on a curve. The human mind and conscience is complex enough to stump the artificially intelligent computer well into that curve. I don't think it will get there within the next 50 years.

I agree that technology predictions usually tend to be a little ambitious and underestimate complexities.  I really wouldn't be willing to give a time scale, personally.



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