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11 commercial jetliners missing after Islamist takeover of Tripoli airport

Started by Foodlion, September 02, 2014, 03:17:41 PM


Quote from: Foodlion on September 02, 2014, 03:17:41 PM
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/missing-libyan-jetliners-raise-fears-of-suicide-airliner-attacks-on-911/

Looks like they are working on more 9.11 type attacks.

I did a google search, and seeing as how the top two hits were for this Free Beacon thing and Orly Tits (the Birther Queen), I'm writing this off as just more neocon nutjob hysteria.


Foodlion

Quote from: bateman on September 02, 2014, 03:52:17 PM
Concerning, but can they actually fly them?
All they need is a pilot and a gun pointed at his head to get it up in the air.


Quote from: Foodlion on September 02, 2014, 04:00:26 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/24/libya-capital-under-islamist-control-tripoli-airport-seized-operation-dawn

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/08/23/Libyan-militias-say-they-have-taken-Tripoli-airport.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2733459/Tripoli-airport-falls-Islamists-Rebels-set-planes-terminal-buildings-fire-weeks-fierce-fighting.html

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/08/23/libyan-militants-claim-to-have-taken-control-tripoli-airport/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28916417


I think we can all agree that the airport is not in the hands of the Libyan government.

Not sure about what planes are missing, but assuming that any of them are large enough to cross the Atlantic, we would have in excess of 14 hours to prepare for them.  Fuel tanks would be empty, too.

Europe?  More of a concern, but still more than three hours to London.  I'm seeing this as more a matter of target practice than a genuine threat to any Western nation.

albrecht

Quote from: DigitalPigSnuggler on September 02, 2014, 04:38:48 PM
Not sure about what planes are missing, but assuming that any of them are large enough to cross the Atlantic, we would have in excess of 14 hours to prepare for them.  Fuel tanks would be empty, too.

Europe?  More of a concern, but still more than three hours to London.  I'm seeing this as more a matter of target practice than a genuine threat to any Western nation.
The danger is really for things like the Qatari gas fields, Saudi oil fields, oil tankers, etc. Even if they could fly to the US, or Europe, there would be so much airtime that we would be able to intercept and shoot down over the ocean. But various oil&gas facilities, pipelines, and shipping traffic is much closer and we might not have time to react before big boom!

VtaGeezer

I don't know what the air traffic into Tripoli was, but it probably collapsed when Qaddafi lost control and the Libyan govt ceased to exist.   When the US Embassy was evacuated in July, they used vehicles to caravan out to Tunisia.  My hunch is that any aircraft remaining at that airport weren't flyable.   I also note that the other sources don't mention anything about missing aircraft in their headlines.

albrecht

Quote from: VtaGeezer on September 02, 2014, 04:44:03 PM
I don't know what the air traffic into Tripoli was, but it probably collapsed when Qaddafi lost control and the Libyan govt ceased to exist.   When the US Embassy was evacuated in July, they used vehicles to caravan out to Tunisia.  My hunch is that any aircraft remaining at that airport weren't flyable.   I also note that the other sources don't mention anything about missing aircraft in their headlines.
Considering the back and forth fighting for so long I would reckon that any aircraft would've been destroyed or at least damaged. But all it takes is one plane flown effectively into a target to wreck some havoc. At least disrupt financial markets and oil&gas prices.

VtaGeezer

Quote from: albrecht on September 02, 2014, 04:55:20 PM
Considering the back and forth fighting for so long I would reckon that any aircraft would've been destroyed or at least damaged. But all it takes is one plane flown effectively into a target to wreck some havoc. At least disrupt financial markets and oil&gas prices.
It doesn't take a 787 to cause a catastrophe, and smaller but "big-enough" commercial aircraft are easy enough to procure.  Since there's been not a single reported attempt in 13 years, I think the jetliner-as-terrorist-weapon option has been closed down for Western targets with new IFF and alert air defense.

Quick Karl

Quote from: VtaGeezer on September 02, 2014, 05:19:45 PM
It doesn't take a 787 to cause a catastrophe, and smaller but "big-enough" commercial aircraft are easy enough to procure.  Since there's been not a single reported attempt in 13 years, I think the jetliner-as-terrorist-weapon option has been closed down for Western targets with new IFF and alert air defense.

You would be easy to annihilate in a war - all an enemy would have to do is wait until you think he wont attack anymore...


Quick Karl

Quote from: VtaGeezer on September 02, 2014, 05:38:57 PM
Pee-ew..what's that odor???

Its your rotting corpse after you thought they weren't coming in planes again...

SciFiAuthor

Quote from: DigitalPigSnuggler on September 02, 2014, 04:38:48 PM
Not sure about what planes are missing, but assuming that any of them are large enough to cross the Atlantic, we would have in excess of 14 hours to prepare for them.  Fuel tanks would be empty, too.

Europe?  More of a concern, but still more than three hours to London.  I'm seeing this as more a matter of target practice than a genuine threat to any Western nation.

A lot less than 14 hours, a flight to Libya isn't much different than one to Italy, perhaps 8-9 hours. Take a route over radar-deficient Africa and into the open Atlantic and it may not be caught until it's on our border. Remember, it took weeks to figure out where Malaysia Airlines flight 370 went down. Granted that we'd probably detect an unauthorized aircraft entering US airspace, but would we figure it out and respond in time? We didn't on 9/11. I hope we would now, but the system does not seem fool proof.

More likely maybe is that they might try to ram one into a government building in Baghdad or Damascus in support of ISIS.

Yorkshire pud

Quote from: Quick Karl on September 02, 2014, 05:25:57 PM
You would be easy to annihilate in a war - all an enemy would have to do is wait until you think he wont attack anymore...

Once again you default to attacking the messenger without understanding the message. Your profound ignorence and abilities beyond being abusive to anyone who isn't you is pitiful.

Yorkshire pud

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on September 03, 2014, 12:22:32 AM
A lot less than 14 hours, a flight to Libya isn't much different than one to Italy, perhaps 8-9 hours. Take a route over radar-deficient Africa and into the open Atlantic and it may not be caught until it's on our border. Remember, it took weeks to figure out where Malaysia Airlines flight 370 went down. Granted that we'd probably detect an unauthorized aircraft entering US airspace, but would we figure it out and respond in time? We didn't on 9/11. I hope we would now, but the system does not seem fool proof.

More likely maybe is that they might try to ram one into a government building in Baghdad or Damascus in support of ISIS.

I know it's a shock but sourthern France and Gibralter has radar.Gibralter is a joint civilian and RAF base. A couple of Typhoons could reach across the Med in about two minutes. If the airliners remaining are airworthy I'd be surprised but it's not impossible. It isn't crossing the Atlantic anyone needs to worry about, it's the easier possibility of attacks on oil fields in Libya.

With all the internal turmoil in Libya and the rest of North Africa and the Middle East, I would think any terrorist with a functioning aircraft would be much more interested in doing some domestic damage than waking America up again.

Ohhh it`s probably nothing. Why...I wouldn`t worry a bit about it heh heh. Probably not even true...




SciFiAuthor

Quote from: Yorkshire pud on September 03, 2014, 12:33:35 AM
I know it's a shock but sourthern France and Gibralter has radar.Gibralter is a joint civilian and RAF base. A couple of Typhoons could reach across the Med in about two minutes. If the airliners remaining are airworthy I'd be surprised but it's not impossible. It isn't crossing the Atlantic anyone needs to worry about, it's the easier possibility of attacks on oil fields in Libya.

Australia has good radar and it took days for them to come up with something with the MA Flight 370 case. I just don't see any indicators that our air traffic control systems are geared to detect this kind of thing fast enough to do something about it. Hope so. I also don't know what planes are missing, if it's just some old 727's then I wouldn't worry. But if they got a Libyan Airlines A330-200 and can fuel and fly it empty then it's a different story. I think another angle would be attacking Egypt with them in support of the brotherhood. 

Yorkshire pud

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on September 03, 2014, 11:38:31 PM
Australia has good radar and it took days for them to come up with something with the MA Flight 370 case. I just don't see any indicators that our air traffic control systems are geared to detect this kind of thing fast enough to do something about it. Hope so. I also don't know what planes are missing, if it's just some old 727's then I wouldn't worry. But if they got a Libyan Airlines A330-200 and can fuel and fly it empty then it's a different story. I think another angle would be attacking Egypt with them in support of the brotherhood.

Land based radar is limited by geography and geometry. MH370 search area is considerably further away from western Austrailia than Gib, Spain and southern France is from Libya. North Africa is well within visual range of Gib. I have no idea of the radar capabilities (or any other comms/ surveliance) at any of the three places, but I would think their military reach is considerable. Radio chatter will be monitored continuously. The first breath of something not as it should be will be pounced on within minutes.

albrecht

Quote from: Yorkshire pud on September 04, 2014, 12:48:44 AM
Land based radar is limited by geography and geometry. MH370 search area is considerably further away from western Austrailia than Gib, Spain and southern France is from Libya. North Africa is well within visual range of Gib. I have no idea of the radar capabilities (or any other comms/ surveliance) at any of the three places, but I would think their military reach is considerable. Radio chatter will be monitored continuously. The first breath of something not as it should be will be pounced on within minutes.
One would hope but every so often you hear about "lost" planes on radar in areas where supposedly we are monitoring with AWACs etc (like in drug shipping lanes in South America and the Caribbean.) We had NORAD during 911 to no, or little, effect. I mainly discount any threat to Europe and especially the US from the missing Libyan planes (if any are still flyable after the fighting over the airport) but an attack on a more local pipeline, gas field, oil field, or tankers would still cause much harm to us via the financial markets and oil&gas futures markets.

I can`t vouch for the veracity of this report, but there is a story out there that suggests that captured Syrian pilots are being forced to train ISIL fighters to fly commercial airliners.

SciFiAuthor

Quote from: Yorkshire pud on September 04, 2014, 12:48:44 AM
Land based radar is limited by geography and geometry. MH370 search area is considerably further away from western Austrailia than Gib, Spain and southern France is from Libya. North Africa is well within visual range of Gib. I have no idea of the radar capabilities (or any other comms/ surveliance) at any of the three places, but I would think their military reach is considerable. Radio chatter will be monitored continuously. The first breath of something not as it should be will be pounced on within minutes.

Yes, but the point is that Australia failed to detect an errant plane for days despite their radar having caught it. No one seemed to see anything amiss. They had to go back and look at the logs to find it. In fact, every radar in the area failed to detect it in real time. On 9/11, we detected the planes over land but mounted no response in time to avert the disaster. I just don't see much pouncing going on in the air traffic control system lately. Military is another story, but again, unless they fly it into restricted air space I'm not sure they'd figure it out in time, although they may be watching the captured airfield intensely for any take-offs. Hopefully they are.


Folks, if these aircraft are to be weaponized, they will be utilized in the Middle East theater of operations.  Think of the damage they could do to be Saudi oil refineries. And then, think of the  turmoil to the world economy.

VtaGeezer

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on September 04, 2014, 03:02:50 PM
Yes, but the point is that Australia failed to detect an errant plane for days despite their radar having caught it. No one seemed to see anything amiss. They had to go back and look at the logs to find it. In fact, every radar in the area failed to detect it in real time. On 9/11, we detected the planes over land but mounted no response in time to avert the disaster. I just don't see much pouncing going on in the air traffic control system lately. Military is another story, but again, unless they fly it into restricted air space I'm not sure they'd figure it out in time, although they may be watching the captured airfield intensely for any take-offs. Hopefully they are.
Evidence of MH370's presumed southern course is sketchy and uncertain.  Saying that Australia "failed to detect" the Malaysian plane is a bit over the top.

The US and Western Europe occupy the bulk of the terrorist target list.   The targeted nations don't publicize details of their post-9/11 deterrent measures.  Since 9/11, air traffic has certainly been more carefully monitored, military alert aircraft increased from its pathetic state in 2001, and media has reported wayward domestic aircraft were intercepted numerous times since then.   No commercial aircraft have been used offensively by terrorists anywhere in the 13 years since 9/11 and I doubt that's for lack of desire.

SciFiAuthor

Quote from: VtaGeezer on September 04, 2014, 05:24:35 PM
Evidence of MH370's presumed southern course is sketchy and uncertain.  Saying that Australia "failed to detect" the Malaysian plane is a bit over the top.

Australia operates one of the most advanced over-the-horizon radar networks in the world looking to Southeast Asia as a matter of their national security. They said it was looking in the wrong direction at the time. In other words, there was an exploitable hole in their network. The Malaysian military got a radar contact on it, but failed at the time to recognize what was going on, another hole. The pilot turned his SSR transponder off which renders an aircraft invisible to ATC if stays out of range of an airport's shorter range PSR ground radar, yet another hole . . .

Even the hydrophone network failed to detect the impact of the plane.

Quote
The US and Western Europe occupy the bulk of the terrorist target list.   The targeted nations don't publicize details of their post-9/11 deterrent measures.  Since 9/11, air traffic has certainly been more carefully monitored, military alert aircraft increased from its pathetic state in 2001, and media has reported wayward domestic aircraft were intercepted numerous times since then.   No commercial aircraft have been used offensively by terrorists anywhere in the 13 years since 9/11 and I doubt that's for lack of desire.

I hope you're right but we do live in a world where we lost a 777 and still can't seem to find it after six months of looking. 

VtaGeezer

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on September 04, 2014, 10:22:41 PM
Australia operates one of the most advanced over-the-horizon radar networks in the world looking to Southeast Asia as a matter of their national security. They said it was looking in the wrong direction at the time. In other words, there was an exploitable hole in their network. The Malaysian military got a radar contact on it, but failed at the time to recognize what was going on, another hole. The pilot turned his SSR transponder off which renders an aircraft invisible to ATC if stays out of range of an airport's shorter range PSR ground radar, yet another hole . . .

Even the hydrophone network failed to detect the impact of the plane.

I hope you're right but we do live in a world where we lost a 777 and still can't seem to find it after six months of looking.
OTH systems are huge and fixed. The Australian system is "pointed" toward their principal threat vector; ie, SE Asia, rather than the "desert" of the Eastern Indian Ocean. I'm not nit-picking but only saying US and Euro deterrence are magnitudes tighter than on 9/11, and further magnitudes beyond the SE Asians and Oz. IF such attack were ever to be successful again, the political and career repercussions would be devastating, and public keening over terrorism notwithstanding, politics is really all that narcissist pols of any stripe care about.

Uncle Duke

Quote from: VtaGeezer on September 05, 2014, 03:57:05 PM
OTH systems are huge and fixed. The Australian system is "pointed" toward their principal threat vector; ie, SE Asia, rather than the "desert" of the Eastern Indian Ocean. I'm not nit-picking but only saying US and Euro deterrence are magnitudes tighter than on 9/11, and further magnitudes beyond the SE Asians and Oz. IF such attack were ever to be successful again, the political and career repercussions would be devastating, and public keening over terrorism notwithstanding, politics is really all that narcissist pols of any stripe care about.

The RAAF also operates several E-7 Wedgetail AEW/C aircraft, one of the most advanced a/c of its type in the world.  Not sure where they are based in Oz, probably on the east coast with the bulk of their tactical aircraft.  Never heard any mention of them back at the time the 777 was lost, was surprised no one every asked if there were Wedgetails in the air when MH370 went missing. 

SciFiAuthor

Quote from: VtaGeezer on September 05, 2014, 03:57:05 PM
OTH systems are huge and fixed. The Australian system is "pointed" toward their principal threat vector; ie, SE Asia, rather than the "desert" of the Eastern Indian Ocean. I'm not nit-picking but only saying US and Euro deterrence are magnitudes tighter than on 9/11, and further magnitudes beyond the SE Asians and Oz. IF such attack were ever to be successful again, the political and career repercussions would be devastating, and public keening over terrorism notwithstanding, politics is really all that narcissist pols of any stripe care about.

Yes I know, but it's in what they monitor within their fields of view which makes them effectively directional. China has a similar system and didn't see it because they weren't looking at the right area of what they were seeing as a whole, same with Australia. This constitutes a problem because had that pilot intended to ram the plane into a building in Australia by turning his transponder off, which he did, and avoiding airports until it was too late he could well have done it if he chose the right flight path.

I hope things are tighter now, but entropy occurs; 9/11 was 13 years ago after all. I'm looking for indications of entropy, and, well, we saw one with MH 370.

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